Good morning. As CEO of EV maker Tesla, Elon Musk is the face of the company. His image and influence are a big part of the brand—so much so that President Trump on Monday pledged to buy a Tesla to help defend "Elon's baby" at a time when its share price is plummeting and protests continue at Tesla dealerships.

However, investors are starting to examine what they've long ignored: “Tesla's bedrock value minus the ‘Musk premium,’” according to Fortune’s Shawn Tully. In his new piece, Tully set out to answer the question: What would Tesla be worth without Elon Musk? He explores the company’s worth on its own by separating out what he referred to as the “Musk Magic Premium, the extra market cap awarded for the ‘forthcoming’ ventures Musk has failed to deliver but that still rally hordes of believers.”

Tesla has been facing some headwinds. Its stock price reached a high of $488 on Dec. 18 but has now relinquished essentially all its gains from President Trump’s election, when it doubled in value over the span of just six weeks, becoming more valuable than all carmakers combined. Shares have been down heavily since the start of this year. Tesla shares sank over 15% on Monday, closing at $222.15. 

Investors have braced for a stock dump. And during this vulnerable time for stock sentiment, Tesla published an SEC filing informing investors that CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold another $718,000 in shares on March 6, which brought his total over the past 90 days to over $8 million, Fortune reported.

In 2024, Tesla sales fell by 1%, its first annual decline in 12 years. The slump isn’t solely a reflection of less consumer demand but also an increase in market competition and political dynamics.  

In Tully’s report, he writes that investors reckoned that Musk’s newfound status as the highest-profile member of the Trump economic team in heading the Department of Government Efficiency would somehow restore the buzz around Tesla. 

“Musk appeared to be performing a never-before-seen coup in taming the federal bureaucracy,” he writes. “His early wins at the White House reminded folks and funds of the supposedly enduring Musk magic, and renewed belief in his epic vision for the EV giant.”

In his analysis of Telsa’s worth, Tully used conventional guideposts to reach an accurate valuation based on the products and services Tesla currently produces and sells, “sans the wonders Musk is predicting.”

“To establish repeatable, durable numbers for earnings, I eliminated special items, notably the $589 million write-up for the Bitcoin trove on Tesla’s books allowed by new accounting rules, and the almost $6 billion tax benefit in Q4 of 2023,” Tully writes. “I also removed estimated after-tax income from the sale of regulatory credits to competing manufacturers, a sideline that Musk acknowledges will disappear, though the rate of decline remains uncertain.”

To find out the results of his analysis, you can read the complete article here.

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com