Dan Niles Says Oracle (ORCL)’s AI Capex to Decline

Insider Monkey
11 Mar

We recently published a list of Top 10 Stocks Everyone Is Talking About These Days. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) stands against other top stocks everyone is talking about these days.

Major AI stocks are wavering as investors assess the impact of decreasing hardware costs and their effects on technology spending. T. Rowe Price’s Tony Wang said in a latest program on CNBC that while Mag. 7 companies are still strong, there are opportunities to look elsewhere as the technology-related gains broaden out.

“You saw the Mag. 7 really dominate the last two years, and I think going into this year, I think that there’s a lot of concern over the capex that’s being spent. I mean, they’re kind of becoming fundamentally different businesses in some respect in terms of the capital intensity. And then on top of that, you had kind of more inline reports, and so when you’re spending a lot of capex and you’re coming in line, I think that tends to set up for a tougher stock reaction. And so, you know, I think there’s other areas in tech that naturally things will broaden out to, like things that have more bottoming fundamentals and can have a little bit easier setup. So I think that, you know, we’re looking for more broadening, and I think that these are still very good companies and still like a core part of tech portfolios, but I think there’s opportunity elsewhere as well.”

READ ALSO: 7 Best Stocks to Buy For Long-Term and 8 Cheap Jim Cramer Stocks to Invest In

For this article, we picked 10 stocks currently trending on latest news and analyst ratings. With each stock we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).

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Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL)

Number of Hedge Funds Investors: 91

Dan Niles from Niles Investment Management analyzed Oracle Corp’s (NYSE:ORCL) capEx outlook in a latest program on CNBC to prove his thesis that AI spending is expected to slow down, impacting chipmakers like Nvidia.

“I’ve written about this multiple times. Look at Oracle. If you look at Oracle, Oracle came out and said for their next fiscal year they’re going to go ahead and double capex. So you look at that, you get incredibly excited when you don’t do any of the math. When you do the math, you go, “Okay, well, their fiscal year ends in May. This implies 13.7 billion in capex. You already had six months go by, so that leaves 7.5 billion left to spend.” In the most recent quarter, they spent 4 billion, so 4 billion doubled is 8 billion. That’s not seven and a half, right? So their sequential growth is actually going to go down in AI capex. But you look at the headlines and you go, “Oh, capex is doubling. That’s fantastic.” That’s the problem with a lot of the analysis you’re seeing. People aren’t actually going through and doing the math, what it means sequentially much.”

Parnassus Value Equity Fund stated the following regarding Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:

“Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) announced second-quarter results that exceeded consensus expectations, driven by growth in its cloud infrastructure business, which is benefiting from demand for AI applications. Investor sentiment was further bolstered by the company’s announcement of a new partnership with Amazon.”

Overall, ORCL ranks 8th on our list of top stocks everyone is talking about these days. While we acknowledge the potential of ORCL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ORCL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

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