Adds details from the research note

March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. net copper imports could rise by 50% to 100% in the coming months due to higher U.S. prices before the Trump administration's planned tariffs, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Tuesday.

The May 2025 U.S. copper price is currently trading at $756 per metric ton over the global benchmark London Metal Exchange $(LME.AU)$ price, after the U.S. initiated an investigation into possible tariffs on copper imports to rebuild U.S. production, the bank said.

Although no duty has been proposed yet, Goldman Sachs expects a 25% tariff on copper imports by year-end, leading to the surge in imports and 200,000-300,000-ton increase in U.S. copper inventories by the end of the third quarter.

The higher U.S. price is projected to boost U.S. copper stocks from the current 95,000 tons to at least 300,000-400,000 tons by the end of the third quarter, the bank said. This would account for 45-60% of global reported inventories, leaving very low copper inventories elsewhere, it added.

Goldman Sachs also forecasts a 180,000-ton global copper market deficit in 2025 due to robust electrification demand, China stimulus, and slower mine supply growth, expected to be concentrated in the second half of the year due to seasonal factors.

"We maintain our forecast that the LME 3-month price will average $10,200/t in 2024 Q3, and see the impact of inventory dislocation predominantly in timespreads," Goldman Sachs said.

"We forecast a maximum $350/t LME Sep-Dec backwardation, based on the LME backwardation rising to a level that will close the U.S. import arbitrage."

Three-month copper on the LME CMCU3 was trading at $9,623.5 a metric ton, as of 1505 GMT.

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in BengaluruEditing by Marguerita Choy)

((anmol.choubey@thomsonreuters.com;))