OPENING CALL

Stock futures and bond yields fell early on Monday after President Trump did not rule out the possibility that his policies would cause a recession and data showed deflationary pressures building in China .

Trump over the weekend refused to rule out the U.S. economy entering a recession this year, telling Fox News there will be a "period of transition because what we're doing is very big."

Trump's TV appearance followed a turbulent week in markets, as investors grow increasingly concerned about how his unpredictable tariff policies could affect U.S. growth.

This week, more action awaits investors. In addition to monitoring for tariff announcements, investors will unpack inflation gauges for February. Readings on consumer sentiment and job openings are also due.

Premarket Movers

Cognizant Technology Solutions was up 3.1% after WSJ reported activist investor Mantle Ridge has built a stake of more than $1 billion in the company, believed the shares are undervalued.

DexCom received a warning letter from the FDA following inspections of its facilities in San Diego and Mesa, Ariz. The stock fell 3.4%.

DoorDash rose 5% after the company was added to the S&P 500. It will join Williams-Sonoma, TKO Group Holdings, and Expand Energy in the index. The changes will take effect before the start of trading on March 24.

Williams-Sonoma rose 1%, TKO Group gained 1.8%, and Expand Energy was up 1.5%.

MicroStrategy fell 7%, Coinbase Global fell 6.2%, and Robinhood Markets was down 6.6% as the stocks followed Bitcoin lower on disappointment over Trump's executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States.

Nvidia fell 2.3% after closing Friday up 1.9%. Coming into Monday, shares of the leading maker of artificial-intelligence chips have dropped 16% in 2025.

Tesla declined 3.5%. Shares have fallen for seven straight weeks.

Watch For:

Employment Trends Index for February; earnings from Oracle, BioNTech, Vail Resorts

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- Made-in-U.S.A. Lumber Futures Are Coming to Wall Street

- What the Dot-Com Bust Can Tell Us About Today's AI Boom

- Tariff Wars Are Often Short. Their Legacies Aren't.

- China Is Waging a 'Gray Zone' Campaign to Cement Power. Here's How It Looks.

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar traded steady but remained at weaker levels after losses last week amid uncertainty over Trump's policies.

The big issue for markets is the fact that Trump's policies change as "often as the direction of the wind does," Pepperstone said.

Trump's whipsawing on tariffs makes it impossible for market participants to price risk or accurately discount a future policy path, it added.

There is no surprise that "nobody wants to touch dollar denominated assets right now" with the DXY dollar index suffering its worst week in two-and-a-half years last week.

The Canadian dollar could rise in the medium term if Canada's newly announced prime minister Mark Carney successfully counters U.S. tariffs, Swissquote Bank said.

However, in the short-run the currency faces selling pressure as the Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday, it added.

The euro consolidated after last week's rally against the dollar as markets awaited news on German fiscal policy and Ukraine peace talks, ING said.

A key area of focus is on whether German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz can get his 500 billion-euro infrastructure fund through parliament, it said.

He is in discussions with the Greens political party and the Bundestag lower house is expected to vote on the measures on March 18.

"Headlines on whether the Greens are playing ball this week could trigger some volatility in the euro."

Bonds:

With more issuance than redemptions and coupon payments, net issuance of Treasurys will be positive in the next five week's, Morgan Stanley Research said.

Over the next five weeks, Morgan Stanley expects $460 billion of supply against $178.7 billion of redemptions and $24.2 billion of coupon payments.

This week, the Treasury will issue $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

Energy:

Oil prices slipped as U.S. import tariff concerns raised fears for global economic growth, exacerbated by planned OPEC+ output hikes, Tickmill said.

Trump's tariffs imposed and delayed on Mexico and Canada, combined with retaliatory Chinese levies have raised fears of an economic slowdown, damping fuel demand and pushing short-term oil views bearish, it said.

Saudi Arabia's decision to cut Asian crude prices and deflationary Chinese economic data have compounded economic worries, Tickmill said.

OPEC+'s planned output hikes from April add to the supply concerns, potentially exacerbating a supply-demand imbalance, it added.

Metals:

Gold futures were broadly flat in relatively muted trading.

Gold is trading in a tight range as markets appear to be pricing out the inflationary effect of Trump's tariff policies given constant reversals, Sucden Financial said.

Market attention is fixed on Wednesday's CPI data, and PPI data set for release on Thursday.

The economic data could provide more clues as to the Federal Reserve's pathway to monetary policy easing.

The physical bullion short-squeeze is poised to send gold above $3,000, UOB said.

"Trade tariff uncertainties have resulted in a strong and sudden shipment of gold bullion back into COMEX and the U.S., triggering a global short squeeze in gold."

Comex gold futures are undergoing consolidation, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research said. The precious metal could shift to a sideways movement above the $2,850 support level.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Foxconn Builds FoxBrain, Its Own AI Model

The world's largest contract electronics maker, Foxconn, said Monday it has built its own large language model with reasoning capabilities, developed in-house and trained in four weeks.

Initially designed for internal use within the company, the artificial-intelligence model, called FoxBrain, is capable of data analysis, mathematics, reasoning and code generation, the company said.

Logistics Startups Are Back in Demand as Companies Navigate Tariffs

A crop of startups that arose in the pandemic to help address hamstrung supply chains is having another moment, as companies confront an array of U.S. tariffs whose parameters and start dates seem to be in perpetual motion.

For these startups, that upheaval has been a boon. Chicago-based Project44, for instance, in recent weeks has helped large multinational customers in retail and other sectors customize software to determine whether shipments will arrive before or after a tariff date, and then break down the costs of trying to get ahead of the levy versus paying the extra cost, the company said.

Is the chip sector having a meltdown? By this measure, it's mostly just Nvidia.

Many high-profile chip stocks got punished this earnings season, with Wall Street taking a more exacting approach to evaluating artificial-intelligence players.

But when you look at the carnage in the past six weeks since the DeepSeek developments rocked the technology sector, one company is largely responsible for the lost market value. That's Nvidia Corp. NVDA, which is by far the biggest chip company to begin with.

7-Eleven Owner, Couche-Tard Financial Advisers Looking for Potential Buyers for Some Stores

The owner of 7-Eleven said financial advisers to the company and Alimentation Couche-Tard are searching for potential buyers for some stores to mitigate U.S. antitrust risk related to a potential takeover of the Japanese retail giant by the Canadian owner of Circle K.

Seven & i Holdings said in a letter to shareholders Monday that Couche-Tard recently agreed to jointly explore a potential sale of some stores prior to signing a takeover agreement.

U.S. Bolsters Position as World's Top Arms Exporter

American defense companies have increased their dominance of the global arms trade, buoyed by European nations snapping up U.S. jet fighters and missiles.

The U.S. accounted for 43% of global weapons exports over the past five years, up from 35% in the previous five-year period, according to new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank.

Stock Investors Go on Defense With Dividends

Rattled by the threat of trade restrictions and a slowing economy, some investors are turning to a classic defensive play: dividend stocks.

Shares of companies that offer relatively hefty cash payouts are beating the broader market this year. Some of the market's largest dividend-focused funds, such as the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF and the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF, have risen more than 4% in 2025, even as major indexes slipped into the red.

Mark Carney Wins Leadership of a Canadian Liberal Party Revived by Trump

OTTAWA-Mark Carney won the leadership of Canada's Liberal Party on Sunday, putting him in line to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and call an election that suddenly seems winnable for the country's center left.

Now prime-minister designate, Carney, 59 years old, will officially become Canada's new leader in the coming days and immediately take over his country's response to President Trump's trade war. The former central bank chief of both Canada and the U.K. is expected to quickly call a general election to take advantage of polling momentum against the Conservative Party of Canada, which just weeks ago seemed on the cusp of a landslide.

Mexico's Sheinbaum Rallies Supporters in Response to Trump's Threats

MEXICO CITY-Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum celebrated a second month's suspension of U.S. tariffs with a giant fiesta in the capital's central square before a crowd of tens of thousands of supporters bused in from every corner of the country.

Sunday's rally represented a show of unity in defense of Mexico's sovereignty. The popular leftist leader initially planned to use the mass gathering to outline her government's retaliatory measures against unilateral tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. After President Trump decided to put tariffs on hold following a telephone conversation with Sheinbaum last week, the event at the Zocalo turned into a cheerful festival.

GOP Government Funding Plan Sets Up Clash With Democrats

WASHINGTON-Republicans are charging ahead with a proposal endorsed by President Trump that would keep the government funded into the fall while reducing spending, setting up a clash with Democrats already steaming over sharp cuts to federal jobs and programs.

The proposal, if it clears a vote in the House as soon as Tuesday and then the Senate, would avoid a government shutdown next weekend and keep federal agencies funded through Sept. 30.

Write to ina.kreutz@wsj.com TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

Alaris Eqty Ptrns 4Q

Enghouse 1Q

Franco-Nevada 4Q

Pollard Banknote 4Q

Economic Events $(ET)$:

N/A Ontario Government imposes 25% surcharge on electricity exported to U.S.

Expected Major Events for Monday

00:01/UK: Feb KPMG and REC UK Report on Jobs

04:30/JPN: Feb Corporate Insolvencies

05:00/JPN: Jan Indexes of Business Conditions - Preliminary Release

06:00/JPN: Feb Economy Watchers Survey

07:00/GER: Jan Foreign Trade

07:00/GER: Jan Industrial Production Index

09:00/ITA: Jan PPI

14:00/US: Feb Employment Trends Index

23:30/JPN: Jan Household Spending

23:50/JPN: 4Q 2nd Preliminary Quarterly GDP Estimates

23:50/JPN: Feb Money Stock, Broadly-defined Liquidity

All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

Expected Earnings for Monday

ATI Physical Therapy Inc (ATIP) is expected to report for 4Q.

Air Transport Services Group Inc $(ATSG)$ is expected to report $0.25 for 4Q.

Akoya Biosciences Inc $(AKYA)$ is expected to report $-0.15 for 4Q.

Asana Inc $(ASAN)$ is expected to report $-0.26 for 4Q.

Beachbody Co Inc $(BODI)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Beasley Broadcast Group Inc $(BBGI)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

California First Leasing Corp (CFNB) is expected to report for 1Q.

Canterbury Park Holding Corp $(CPHC)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Cohen & Co Inc $(COHN)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Commercial Vehicle Group Inc $(CVGI)$ is expected to report $-0.07 for 4Q.

ContextLogic Inc $(LOGC)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Cyclerion Therapeutics Inc $(CYCN)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

DarioHealth Corp (DRIO) is expected to report $-0.29 for 4Q.

Fate Therapeutics Inc (FATE) is expected to report $-0.43 for 4Q.

Fennec Pharmaceuticals Inc (FENC,FRX.T) is expected to report $-0.19 for 4Q.

First Acceptance Corp (FACO) is expected to report for 4Q.

Franco-Nevada Corp (FNV,FNV.T) is expected to report $0.90 for 4Q.

Frontera Energy Corp (FEC.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Genie Energy Ltd $(GNE)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Hammond Manufacturing Co - Class A (HMM.A.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

HighPeak Energy Inc $(HPK)$ is expected to report $0.20 for 4Q.

KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc $(KALV)$ is expected to report $-0.88 for 3Q.

LENZ Therapeutics Inc (LENZ) is expected to report for 4Q.

Lineage Cell Therapeutics Inc (LCTX) is expected to report $-0.03 for 4Q.

MRC Global Inc $(MRC.UK)$ is expected to report $0.06 for 4Q.

NCS Multistage Holdings Inc $(NCSM)$ is expected to report $0.80 for 4Q.

NET Power Inc (NPWR) is expected to report for 4Q.

Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO) is expected to report for 4Q.

One Liberty Properties Inc (OLP) is expected to report for 4Q.

Optical Cable Corp $(OCC)$ is expected to report for 1Q.

Paymentus Holdings Inc $(PAY)$ is expected to report $0.08 for 4Q.

Pollard Banknote Ltd (PBL.T) is expected to report $0.34 for 4Q.

Quanex Building Products Corp (NX) is expected to report $-0.06 for 1Q.

Ramaco Resources Inc $(METC)$ is expected to report $0.03 for 4Q.

Telos Corp $(TLS)$ is expected to report $-0.18 for 4Q.

TruBridge Inc $(TBRG)$ is expected to report $0.04 for 4Q.

UroGen Pharma Ltd $(URGN)$ is expected to report $-0.71 for 4Q.

Vail Resorts $(MTN)$ is expected to report $6.36 for 2Q.

Viemed Healthcare Inc (VMD,VMD-T) is expected to report $0.11 for 4Q.

Willis Lease Finance Corp $(WLFC)$ is expected to report $1.88 for 4Q.

Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS

Air Lease Cut to Underperform From Buy by B of A Securities

American Public Education Raised to Outperform From Market Perform by William Blair

Bank of America Raised to Outperform From Neutral by Baird

Huntington Bancshares Raised to Outperform From Neutral by Baird

Leonardo DRS Raised to Buy From Neutral by B of A Securities

Neumora Therapeutics Cut to Hold From Buy by Stifel

Steel Dynamics Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Morgan Stanley

Surmodics Raised to Buy From Hold by Lake Street

Trade Desk Raised to Hold From Sell by Benchmark

Traeger Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by Telsey Advisory Group

Viavi Solutions Raised to Buy From Neutral by Rosenblatt

Wayfair Raised to Buy From Hold by Jefferies

Zscaler Raised to Buy From Neutral by B of A Securities

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 10, 2025 06:02 ET (10:02 GMT)

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