【中信证券:多重不确定因素下,美股或延续震荡下行】金十数据3月12日讯,中信证券指出,短期美股正面临着多重不确定因素,包括特朗普的关税政策,美联储的利率政策,个别科技巨头的云计算、数据中心业务增速不及预期等。此外,目前美股整体估值依旧高企,标普500和道指动态PE仍达21.0倍和19.9倍,处于历史79%和82%分位数;而纳指100的24.7倍动态PE也对应历史70%的分位数。此前经济“不着陆”、“减税和放松监管”的乐观情绪被充分透支后,在基本面走弱的迹象下,估值泡沫或被进一步挤压。因此,我们预计在上述问题明朗化之前美股将延续震荡下行行情至3月底/4月初。建议关注:1)估值较为合理、防御属性强的医疗保健;2)内需驱动的服务类消费;3)高股息率的传统电信和公用事业。在关税、美联储货币政策路径等问题明朗化之后,且估值溢价也较为充分地消化后,我们判断届时美股风格将重新切回到大盘蓝筹。
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