金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报指，24年国内风机招标高景气，根据风电头条统计，24年国内风机开标228GW，同比+137%，支撑25年装机高增。风电产业链25Q1淡季不淡，根据央视《经济半小时》，洛轴领导表示往年1-2月份为淡季，但今年订单已饱满，结合产业链调研，该行判断25Q1风机、轴承、叶片等环节排产及出货有望高增，部分零部件涨价或落地，驱动产业链盈利能力提升。该行指，市场担忧新能源上网电价全面市场化或影响下游电站收益率，25H1抢装后需求或下降。该行认为风电发电曲线与电力需求曲线较适配。与光伏相比，风电现货价格亦具备明显优势。考虑到风电竞配领先于招标，24年竞配有望支撑26年装机高景气。另外，25年以来重点海风项目陆续开工，有望支撑25年海风装机高景气。25Q1风电产业链排产及出货高景气，部分零部件环节涨价落地，量利有望拐点向上。该行看好国内风电装机持续增长，叠加欧洲海风需求高增，板块成长性可期。重点关注风机环节盈利修复+出海持续突破，零部件环节涨价落地+海外订单放量。
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