By Paul Overberg, Konrad Putzier and Max Rust

It turns out, America's biggest metro areas aren't shrinking -- at least for now.

New Census Bureau estimates released Thursday show that the New York and Chicago metro areas grew in each of the past two years ended in June. The Los Angeles area expanded in the 12 months ended in June. These regions are all still smaller than before the Covid-19 pandemic, but not by as much as previously thought.

The big difference? The Census Bureau recently changed its estimates of the immigrant population, significantly boosting totals for recent years.

Rising immigration in big metro areas that had been shrinking helped offset both a net loss of people moving to other parts of the country and low birthrates.

Prior census estimates showed New York and Chicago lost population in the year ended in June 2023, but the new numbers indicate that both metro areas actually added people during that period. Their growth accelerated in the year ended in June 2024.

Nowhere was the shift starker than in the New York metro area, the nation's largest. The region's population fell during the pandemic, but grew 1.1% to 19.9 million in the most recent reported year by adding a net 213,000 people, according to the new census estimates. Growth wasn't confined to the suburbs: New York City's population grew by 1%.

The San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Washington, D.C., and Detroit areas also saw growth accelerate in the most recent reported year compared with the one that ended in June 2023. The Los Angeles area flipped from a loss in the earlier period to a small gain.

The results were foreshadowed in state estimates released in December that showed the country had grown about 1% in the most recent year to 340.1 million. Those figures included a substantial upward revision of immigration from estimates made earlier. Thursday's release spreads those new estimates out to counties and metro areas.

Immigrants accounted for 84% of the growth in the year ended in June as birthrates fell to record lows. Also, death rates have yet to drop to prepandemic levels and are boosted by an aging population.

Nationwide, counties that form the core of the 50 largest metro areas in the past year grew by 1.1%, adding 1.1 million residents. While they lost a net 668,000 people to the rest of the country, they gained more people through immigration and births. By comparison, the suburban counties of those metro areas gained 1.3%, or 1.1 million residents. Counties that make up small and medium-size metro areas grew at nearly the same rate, while the most-rural areas only grew slightly.

The 25 largest metro areas, home to more than 40% of Americans, grew 1%.

Much of that growth is on shaky ground. Southern border crossings have slowed significantly since the last census estimates, owing to policy changes in both the U.S. and Mexico, including a restriction during the Biden administration on migrants seeking asylum if they entered the U.S. illegally. President Trump has ordered stepped-up raids to combat illegal immigration.

The Census Bureau doesn't distinguish between those in the U.S. illegally and those with legal status, including those seeking asylum or in temporary protected status.

But immigration isn't the whole story. The big cities were also able to slow the loss of people to other parts of the country. The New York metro area still lost these domestic migrants in the past year, but only at about half the pace of 2021 and 2022. Population losses due to net domestic migration -- the difference between domestic movers coming and going -- have also slowed in several other coastal metro areas.

Meanwhile, areas in the Southeast and Texas that saw a significant wave of domestic arrivals in 2021 and 2022 saw the pace slow noticeably in the past year. The influx has slowed by about two-thirds since 2021 in metro Austin, Texas, and by almost half in Nashville, Tenn.

Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire's Carsey School of Public Policy, said the new estimates are the latest sign that domestic migration is starting to more closely resemble prepandemic trends. "There is some return to normal," he said.

Metro Miami lost a net 101,000 residents to the rest of the country in the past year, about 1.6% of its population, ending San Francisco's yearslong distinction as the biggest domestic migration loser among the big metro areas. The Miami area has for years lost people to cheaper regions in the midst of surging housing costs and worsening congestion. But a growing influx of immigrants -- 213,000 in the past year -- meant the Miami area kept growing.

The estimates also include a handful of large cities that form a single county, offering a glimpse of city-only trends that the Census Bureau will flesh out later this year. Philadelphia swung from recent losses to small gains in the past year. San Francisco widened gains that resumed in 2023, but its population remains down 6% from the start of the pandemic.

Washington, D.C., gaining 31,000 residents, has erased early pandemic losses and grown 2% to top 702,000, although ongoing federal budget and job cuts cloud its future. Nearby Baltimore grew slightly.

A downside of growth: In New York, the metro area's median rent rose 5.8% between January 2024 and January 2025, according to Realtor.com. That is the fastest increase among the 50 biggest metro areas. ( News Corp, parent of The Wall Street Journal, operates Realtor.com.)

Cities including New York, Boston and Philadelphia saw little apartment construction during and after the pandemic, said Eric Finnigan, vice president of demographics research at John Burns, a real-estate research and consulting firm.

"Any increase in demand in those markets is going to have a big impact on rents," he said.

Write to Paul Overberg at paul.overberg@wsj.com, Konrad Putzier at konrad.putzier@wsj.com and Max Rust at max.rust@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 13, 2025 05:00 ET (09:00 GMT)

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