Evoke Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:EVOK) just released its yearly report and things are looking bullish. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$10m leading estimates by 2.2%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystexpected, coming in at US$2.81 per share. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Evoke Pharma

After the latest results, the sole analyst covering Evoke Pharma are now predicting revenues of US$16.0m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 56% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 69% to US$0.81 per share. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$20.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.48 in 2025. There looks to have been a major change in sentiment regarding Evoke Pharma's prospects following the latest results, with a large cut to revenues and the analyst now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.

The consensus price target fell 79% to US$18.00, with the analyst clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analyst, with revenue forecast to display 56% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 64% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 8.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that Evoke Pharma is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst is expecting Evoke Pharma to become unprofitable next year. They also downgraded Evoke Pharma's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Evoke Pharma (2 are potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.