Cheesecake Factory's (NASDAQ:CAKE) earnings growth rate lags the 26% CAGR delivered to shareholders

Simply Wall St.
Yesterday

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ:CAKE) shareholders have seen the share price descend 10% over the month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 192% in that time. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap now.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 6.0%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

View our latest analysis for Cheesecake Factory

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Cheesecake Factory achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 0.9% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 24% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

NasdaqGS:CAKE Earnings Per Share Growth March 15th 2025

We know that Cheesecake Factory has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Cheesecake Factory the TSR over the last 5 years was 219%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Cheesecake Factory shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 33% over one year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 26% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Cheesecake Factory better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Cheesecake Factory .

We will like Cheesecake Factory better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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