智通财经APP获悉,珍酒李渡(06979)续涨超4%,截至发稿,涨3.74%,报8.04港元,成交额1.2亿港元。
国泰君安发布研报称,近期经济数据已初步改善,政府工作报告将“内需”置于首位,白酒板块盘整已久。白酒作为典型代表,24Q3-25Q1基本面持续调整,该行认为最悲观的时点已过,且2025年酒企大多延续理性增长目标,有望走出低谷。该行指出,开门红白酒动销表现一般,库存去化速度较慢,该行认为前期股价走势已基本反应悲观预期。1月以来科技板块受AI及机器人等催化表现强劲、拉大估值差,高低切及内需政策预期的催化下,食品饮料等消费板块有望开启估值修复,其中白酒蓄势已久,具备较大弹性,后续宏观数据催化下有望更进一步。
天风证券认为,新一轮利好政策出台,先PE后EPS,白酒板块后续有望迎来反转。基本面上,业绩低点多滞后于渠道库存高点,当前板块已开始进入业绩增速相对底部阶段(库存加速消化阶段),当前市场已充分下修板块业绩增速预期(EPS预期悲观),预计25H2开始板块业绩增速或迎来反转(估值修复往往先于业绩增速反转)。
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