3 月 14 日,多位华尔街经济学家表示,由于数据背后存在一复杂的计算方法和关键领域的趋势,政策制定者很可能不会对这些数字感到过于宽慰。
美国银行经济学家 Stephen Juneau 在一份报告中表示,“简而言之,2025 年的通胀进程起步就不顺,我们对个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)通胀的预测进一步印证了我们的观点,即通胀不太可能下降到足以使美联储今年降息的水平,尤其是在政策变动推高通胀的情况下。除非经济活动数据明显走弱,否则我们认为政策利率将在年底前保持不变。”
尽管美联储也关注 CPI 和 PPI,但其认为关于通胀的最终话语权属于 PCE 物价指数。大多数经济学家认为,本月晚些时候公布的最新 PCE 数据将显示,同比通胀率充其量持稳在 2.6%,甚至可能略有上升,进一步远离美联储 2% 的目标。(金十)
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