里昂:呼和浩特育儿补贴金额及覆盖期限超预期 预计中国飞鹤(06168)最受惠

智通财经
14 Mar

智通财经APP获悉,里昂发布研报称,内地呼和浩特市公布育儿补贴项目实施细则及服务流程,生育一孩一次性发放育儿补贴1万元人民币(下同);生育二孩发放育儿补贴5万元,按照每年1万元发放,直至孩子5岁;生育三孩及以上发放育儿补贴10万元,按照每年1万元发放,直至孩子10岁。该行称,上述政策的金额及覆盖期限均超出市场预期。

虽然该行不认为这个金额及覆盖期限会成为常态,但相信呼和浩特市的生育补贴应会提升市场预期,主要由于各级政府推动生育的决心;以及其他地区将逐渐推出更多鼓励性政策。虽然现阶段难以评估上述政策对生育率的最终影响,但认为更高的预期将提振短期内与婴儿相关股票的投资情绪,预计中国飞鹤(06186)将受益最多,因为其大部分销售来自1至3阶段的婴幼儿配方奶粉产品,料其2024至2025财年净利润将达到38亿及41亿元人民币,相对于2023财年的34亿元人民币。

该行将中国飞鹤目标价定于7.27港元;H&H国际控股(01112)目标价定于10港元;伊利股份(600887.SH)目标价定于31元人民币,上述三只股份均予以“跑赢大市”评级。

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