此前我们探讨了基于特朗普政府政策、关税焦点以及政府效率部门(DOGE)的动态对经济衰退可能性的影响。此后,Polymarket对美国经济衰退的预测略微上升,从39%提高到40%。 除了贸易战带来的不确定性外,马斯克的政府效率部门(DOGE)通过揭露欺诈和浪费现象,反而加大了衰退的风险。试想下,数以百计的“非政府组织”与数百万政府职员依赖美国政府资助的项目维生,当他们决定清算资产以应对潜在危机,又会...
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