Paul R. La Monica

The Donald Trump-induced stock-market rally after the November election now seems like ancient history. Investors who bought and held shares of the president's social media company since it first began trading on Wall Street about a year ago know that better than anyone else.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group are trading just below $20. They've lost more than half their value since the inauguration and have plunged 75% from the high of nearly $80 that they hit shortly after the stock debuted to public trading in late March 2024 following the Truth Social owner's merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp., a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. So much for Trump Media benefiting from having its namesake in the White House again.

The sharp decline in Trump Media's stock has hurt Donald Trump's wealth. According to Forbes, the president's net worth is about $4.8 billion, down from reportedly more than $7 billion just before the inauguration. Trump indirectly owns nearly 115 million shares in Trump Media, a 52.2% stake currently worth more than $2.2 billion. The shares are now held in a revocable trust that Donald Trump Jr. has voting and investment power over as the only beneficiary.

It isn't clear what, if any, catalysts might drive the price higher again. The company was not immediately available for comment. But even though the president continues to post on Truth Social, he's also back on Elon Musk's X. So it isn't as if Trump fans have to be on Truth Social for exclusive content. That may limit user growth and advertising dollar potential for Trump Media.

The company has discussed growth initiatives, including a streaming video platform, an expansion into financial services and crypto as well as possible acquisitions, but it remains to be seen what any new lines of business will mean for the company's revenue and profit. Trump Media reported net sales of $3.6 million in 2024 and a net loss of more than $400 million.

Trump Media did get a boost just before the election last year, a rally that some market experts attributed to retail investors looking to show support for Trump's presidential candidacy by purchasing the stock.

But trading volume has fallen precipitously since Trump took office, a possible sign that individual investors are no longer enamored with the stock. It doesn't help that shares are also more than 30% below their 200-day moving average, a key technical measure that is often a floor for a stock, of about $30.

Institutional investor interest is scant as well. While some big money managers, such as BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street Global Advisors did buy stakes last year, that move appears to be driven by the fact that Trump Media was added to the Russell 1000 and 3000 indexes. That means that passively managed funds tracking those indexes would need to own them.

What's more, no Wall Street analysts cover the stock, so there are no earnings estimates or price targets for investors to follow.

The next major catalyst for Trump Media likely will be its first-quarter-earnings report, which should come out in April or May.

If Trump Media is able to give investors meaningful updates on its plans for its Truth.Fi financial services brand, which includes planned launches for exchange-traded funds and separately managed accounts tied to Made in America and U.S. Energy Independence themes as well as Bitcoin, then that could possibly lift the stock out of its current malaise. But until then, the Trump Media slump looks set to continue.

Write to Paul R. La Monica at paul.lamonica@barrons.com

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March 13, 2025 12:31 ET (16:31 GMT)

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