There's been a notable change in appetite for Allbirds, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIRD) shares in the week since its full-year report, with the stock down 20% to US$5.10. Revenue hit US$190m in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$11.87 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Allbirds

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the four analysts covering Allbirds, is for revenues of US$178.4m in 2025. This implies a discernible 6.0% reduction in Allbirds' revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 8.2% to US$10.80 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$181.6m and losses of US$11.17 per share in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

Even with the lower forecast losses, the analysts lowered their valuations, with the average price target falling 11% to US$8.00. It looks likethe analysts have become less optimistic about the overall business. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Allbirds analyst has a price target of US$10.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$6.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 0.3% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 6.0% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 5.3% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Allbirds is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Allbirds' future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Allbirds going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Allbirds that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.