Nvidia Stock Is Trying to Rally. The Case for Pessimism

Dow Jones
13 Mar

Nvidia shares rose 0.3% to $116 in morning trading.

Nvidia has climbed 2.7% this week through Wednesday's close but it's still down 14% in 2025.

Those looking for a further catalyst for recovery will be watching Nvidia's GPU Technology Conference next week, which will include a keynote speech from CEO Jensen Huang on March 18. More announcements are expected on future version of its artificial-intelligence chips after the current Blackwell generation.

"Blackwell is ramping successfully and the transition to the next generation (Blackwell Ultra) will be seamless (vs. transitioning from H200) because it has the same architecture.... Gross margin has compressed, but once Blackwell is ramped, there will be ample opportunity to improve costs, and margins should return to mid-70s [percentage] later this year," wrote Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer of Laffer Tangler, which holds Nvidia stock.

As Barron's has noted, Nvidia is now trading at roughly 23 times the per-share earnings expected over the next 12 months, well below its five-year historic average of 40 times.

However, a return to the previous highs is unlikely while U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs continue to drive a shift away from the high-flying tech stocks that have powered the broader market higher over the past two years.

In particular, investors likely need to see the ruling out of the imposition of tariffs on imports of semiconductors from Taiwan, where Nvidia's most advanced chips are manufactured. Despite a $100 billion U.S. investment pledge from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the contract manufacturer for Nvidia, so far Trump has declined to rule out such levies.

Don't expect a full-on rebound until those trade tensions start to ease.

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