金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，3月13日，呼和浩特市卫健委发布当地生育补贴细则，其中最高单孩补贴可达10万元。与现行试点相比，呼和浩特市的生育补贴年均补贴额度有所提升，且补贴周期较长。若按照呼和浩特补贴标准外推全国范围，该行预计到2030年生育补贴的财政支出规模2870亿元，占比GDP仅0.2%。从国际经验来看，德国、法国、日本、韩国和新加坡等发达国家在步入低生育率社会后均采取了生育支持政策。同时，现金补贴政策的有效性与补贴力度具有一定正相关性。该行指，根据国家统计局数据，2023年我国出生人口为902万人，其中一孩、二孩、三孩及以上的比例分别为49%、38%、13%。该行预计全国生育补贴政策或将落地，考虑到人口结构变化较慢，该行按照2023年新生儿出生结构、规模外推测算，预计2025-2027年涉及财政补贴资金规模901/1363/1825亿元，且呈现前低后高的趋势。
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