OPENING CALL

Stock futures edged higher on Wednesday, while bond yields ticked lower, as attention focuses squarely on Jerome Powell's press conference and any hints dropped on the future path for interest rates .

With the Federal Reserve expected to leave rates unchanged, investors will mainly look to its updated economic and fed-fund rate projections for direction.

"We expect volatility around the FOMC press conference, as we are still in a very headline-driven and headline sensitive market," Raymond James said.

Santander expects Powell to be "very non-committal."

"The FOMC is likely waiting for a better indication from the economic data and more clarity on the policy front before deciding on the path forward."

Stocks to Watch

Autodesk rose 0.7% after The Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value was preparing to wage a proxy fight at the design-software maker.

Cargo Therapeutics plans to cease development for more treatments and review strategic options. Shares rose 21%.

General Mills is forecast by Wall Street to report fiscal third-quarter earnings of 96 cents a share, down from $1.17 a year earlier. The stock rose 0.1%.

HealthEquity said it expects adjusted per-share earnings of $3.57 to $3.74 in its fiscal 2026, the midpoint of which is below analyst expectations. Shares fell 13%.

Nvidia rose 0.7% in premarket trading after Jensen Huang announced a more powerful version of its Blackwell AI chips.

Spire Global launched two AI-enabled weather models. Shares rose 8.9%.

Tesla was up 2.9% after Elon Musk defended his record on television.

Economic Insight

Fitch added its name to a slew of prominent forecasters downgrading the outlook for world economic growth and pushed up its expectations for U.S. inflation.

The ratings agency cut its U.S. 2025 growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.1%, well down from growth rates of closer to 3.0% in both 2023 and 2024.

Watch For:

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; Fed interest-rate decision; Fed economic projections

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- The 1960s 'Chicken Tax' Shows the Lasting Impact of Tariffs

- As Debt Ceiling Looms, the Fed Considers Tweaking Its Portfolio Runoff

- Tencent's Revenue Growth Accelerates on Robust Gaming Business

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar recovered marginally against a basket of currencies after hitting a five-month low Tuesday ahead of the Fed's rates decision.

Investors are "explicitly wishing" to hear the Fed is ready to step in if the market selloff worsens, Swissquote Bank said.

If the Fed signals more rate cuts than previously anticipated, equities and the dollar could rise slightly, while a cautious stance would weigh on those markets.

ING said a sustained dollar recovery would require a stabilization in U.S. macroeconomic sentiment following its recent selloff on concerns about slowing growth.

Should upcoming data fail to endorse U.S. recessionary fears, the dollar could be left free to benefit from slower growth in the rest of the world due to its safe-haven status, it added.

Oanda said the dollar's recent rebound against the yen may face headwinds soon.

The euro could weaken if optimism over the eurozone economic outlook fades after Germany's Bundestag passed a major fiscal spending package, ING said.

The euro has fully priced in the spending reform being approved and appears close to peak market optimism on the fiscal boost.

"We must consider that Germany still doesn't have a government, and coalition talks may prove tricky."

Meanwhile, with U.S. reciprocal tariffs on April 2 looming, the second quarter could bring a "reality check" for European optimism and the euro could fall.

The Turkish lira faced further losses after a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was arrested, ING said.

Bonds:

The Fed decision will be important in determining whether Treasury yields fall further near term, MUFG said.

Treasury yields have stabilized in recent days, having dropped to their lowest levels since October earlier this month.

Data showing rising U.S. import prices helped prop up yields ahead of the decision. However, the Fed could also stress risks to growth, MUFG noted.

The Fed is expected to leave the fed funds target range at 4.25%-4.50%. MUFG only expects a modest upward revision to inflation forecasts.

Pepperstone said Treasury yields had some more room to fall .

"I still like bonds higher/yields lower here, particularly as growth expectations continue to re-rate lower, and policy uncertainty persists."

Pepperstone expects Fed policymakers not to 'rock the boat,' by issuing a broadly similar statement to that at the previous meeting, and for Powell to repeat that the FOMC is in no hurry to cut interest rates.

Energy:

Oil prices fell in early trade after Putin agreed to pause attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure during a phone call with Trump.

"The rationale here is that any peace progress would increase the chances of removing sanctions on Russian oil shipments, increasing global supplies," StoneX said.

Meanwhile, market watchers continue to monitor geopolitical risks in the Middle East amid U.S. attacks on the Houthis and Israeli strikes in Gaza.

Traders now await official U.S. crude and gasoline inventory data for more cues on demand trends, as well as the Fed's update on rate projections later on Wednesday.

European natural-gas prices rose in early trade after Putin's call with Trump.

"Gas prices have been under pressure in recent days amid speculation that pipeline flows from Russia could return," ANZ Research said.

Metals:

Gold futures slipped but held near record highs on safe-haven demand.

The precious metal surged after flaring Middle East tensions boosted investor demand for haven assets, ANZ Research said.

Israeli strikes against Hamas targets in Gaza early Tuesday killed more than 400 people according to Palestinian authorities, shattering a two-month ceasefire and heralding a return to uncertainty around regional peace, ANZ said.

The market was also digesting U.S. economic data, which showed apprehension from consumers about the potential effects of President Trump's tariff policies.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Wiz Deal Buoys Cyber Startup Outlook

Google parent Alphabet's $32 billion planned acquisition of cybersecurity startup Wiz may signal a turnaround for a once-hot cyber startup market that has been stuck in limbo in recent years, investors say.

The deal, announced Tuesday, comes as companies across industries face ever-new vulnerabilities from artificial intelligence, prompting bigger budgets and more spending for cybersecurity, they said, speaking at The Wall Street Journal's Tech Live: Cybersecurity conference in New York. That is prompting many large cybersecurity vendors to expand through mergers and acquisitions, offering these companies a one-stop shop for cyber defenses.

Purdue Pharma Files New Reorganization Plan With $7.4 Billion for Creditors

Purdue Pharma has filed a new reorganization plan that aims to deliver more than $7.4 billion in cash to creditors, subject to certain reserves, to compensate victims and abate the opioid crisis.

Purdue will be dissolved and its assets transferred to a new company, it said Wednesday. Sticking to the aim articulated at the outset of the pharma company's bankruptcy, the new public benefit company will focus on the opioid crisis.

Morgan Stanley is the latest bank to trim its workforce. Here's why.

Morgan Stanley plans to cut between 2% and 3% of its 80,000 global employees late this month, a person familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

The move, the person said, was related in part to the way the bank thinks about where employees are located, employee performance and overall resources, and was not specifically related to current market anxieties, as inflation and tariffs rattle consumers, businesses and investors.

Struggling Businesses Sharpen Debt Tactics, Just In Time for a Downturn

As recession fears amp up, struggling businesses have one thing working in their favor: They have never been more adept at reordering their debts to avoid bankruptcy.

U.S. companies have been engaging in liability management exercises, or LMEs, that raise fresh capital and extend debt maturities while avoiding the expense of chapter 11. A wave of LMEs in recent years has kicked the can down the road for dozens of struggling borrowers, pushing the rate of corporate bankruptcies down to historically low levels.

Uranium Bulls Get Spooked by Unknowns From Canada to Russia

Despite the Trump administration's promise to "unleash commercial nuclear power," uranium-related investments have had a rough start to the year. Tariffs and unpredictable geopolitical moves are causing more uncertainty in the market, even if long-term fundamentals look solid.

The spot price of triuranium octoxide has declined about 12% year to date, according to UxC. This has also dragged down the performance of funds such as the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, which holds the commodity, by 19%. Canadian uranium miner Cameco's shares are down 17% so far this year, while the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF is down 14%.

Bank of Japan Leaves Rates Steady as U.S. Uncertainty Heightens

TOKYO-The Bank of Japan held monetary settings steady on Wednesday as it expressed concern over the potential impact global trade frictions could have on the Japanese economy.

In a widely expected move, the Japanese central bank maintained its target for the overnight call rate at 0.5%. The BOJ made its third rate hike in late January after ending the world's last negative interest-rate policy in March 2024.

Turkey Detains Istanbul Mayor, a Top Erdogan Rival

Turkish police detained a top rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday, with prosecutors accusing Istanbul's mayor and dozens of others of terrorism and other charges.

Turkish prosecutors said Ekrem Imamoglu was charged with leading a criminal organization and terrorism-related charges, according to Turkey's state news agency, Anadolu.

Trump's Call With Putin Signals Long Road Ahead to Russia-Ukraine Deal

WASHINGTON-President Trump insisted Russia would be the easier partner on the path to peace with Ukraine. But his Tuesday phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin only underscored the Kremlin is so far the bigger obstacle.

The question now facing Trump is whether to apply real pressure on Putin to make concessions or try to wring more compromises out of Kyiv than he already has.

Israeli Public Support for War in Gaza Wanes as Fighting Restarts

Israel returned to fighting in Gaza on Tuesday, but without clear public backing amid a wave of political turmoil that has caused trust in the government to plummet.

It is a very different environment than when Israel first launched its battle against Hamas 17 months ago, after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks left around 1,200 dead and some 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli authorities. Israelis at the time set aside bitter internal political disputes that had filled the streets with protesters and fell in behind the war effort.

Write to gareth.mcpherson@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

AutoCanada 4Q

Bitfarms Ltd 4Q

Boyd Group Services 4Q

North American Construction Group 4Q

Power Corp. of Canada 4Q

Tantalus Systems Holdings 4Q

Wesdome Gold Mines 4Q

Economic Indicators:

OECD Economic Survey: Canada

Stocks to Watch:

Cipher Pharmaceuticals 4Q Rev $11.8M; 4Q EPS 13c; Changes to Trade Policies, Tariffs Aren't Expected to Have Significant Effect on Business

FCPT Announces Sale Leaseback of Six Burger King Properties for $10.1M

Orla Mining 4Q Rev $92.8M; 4Q Adj EPS 7c; 4Q Adj EPS 7c

True North Commercial REIT 4Q Rev C$31.7Ml 4Q Loss C$15.2M; 4Q FFO C$0.60/Shr

Expected Major Events for Wednesday

04:30/JPN: Jan Revised Retail Sales

06:00/JPN: Feb Revised Machine Tool Orders

08:59/JPN: Japan Monetary Policy Meeting decision

08:59/JPN: Mar Monthly Economic Report

11:00/US: 03/14 MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

14:30/US: 03/14 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

18:00/US: Federal Reserve economic projections

18:00/US: U.S. interest rate decision

20:00/US: Jan Treasury International Capital Data

All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

Expected Earnings for Wednesday

Aadi Bioscience Inc (AADI) is expected to report $-0.29 for 4Q.

Aeva Technologies Inc $(AEVA)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

American Realty Investors Inc $(ARL)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Applied Therapeutics Inc $(APLT)$ is expected to report $-0.21 for 4Q.

AutoCanada Inc (ACQ.T) is expected to report $0.75 for 4Q.

BankFinancial Corp $(BFIN)$ is expected to report $0.05 for 4Q.

Boyd Group Services Inc (BYD.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

CASI Pharmaceuticals Inc $(CASI)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Canlan Ice Sports Corp (ICE.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Clene Inc (CLNN) is expected to report for 4Q.

Climb Bio Inc $(CLYM)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

General Mills Inc $(GIS)$ is expected to report $0.96 for 3Q.

Hennessy Advisors Inc (HNNA) is expected to report for 1Q.

Inhibrx Inc (X-INBX) is expected to report for 4Q.

Interpace Biosciences Inc $(IDXG)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

J.Jill Inc $(JILL)$ is expected to report $0.22 for 4Q.

JW Mays Inc $(MAYS)$ is expected to report for 2Q.

Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd - ADR $(KC)$ is expected to report $-0.72 for 4Q.

LENZ Therapeutics Inc (LENZ) is expected to report for 4Q.

Lightwave Logic Inc $(LWLG)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Liquidia Corp $(LQDA)$ is expected to report $-0.38 for 4Q.

Neonode $(NEON)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc $(OLLI)$ is expected to report $1.19 for 4Q.

Preformed Line Products Co $(PLPC)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Progressive Corp $(PGR)$ is expected to report.

Sana Biotechnology Inc $(SANA)$ is expected to report $-0.25 for 4Q.

Savara Inc (SVRA) is expected to report $-0.11 for 4Q.

Shattuck Labs Inc $(STTK)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Talphera Inc $(TLPH)$ is expected to report $-0.17 for 4Q.

Team Inc (TISI) is expected to report for 4Q.

Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc $(TCI)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Ur-Energy Inc (URE.T,URG) is expected to report for 4Q.

Vacasa Inc $(VCSA)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd (WDO.T,WDOFF) is expected to report for 4Q.

Westwater Resources Inc (WWR) is expected to report for 4Q.

Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM) is expected to report $2.90 for 4Q.

Yunhong Green CTI Ltd $(YHGJ)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

flyExclusive Inc $(FLYX)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

icad Inc $(ICAD)$ is expected to report $-0.05 for 4Q.

vTv Therapeutics Inc - Class A $(VTVT)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS

Block Raised to Outperform From Market Perform by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Brighthouse Financial Raised to Strong Buy From Market Perform by Raymond James

CNX Resources Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Stephens & Co.

Duolingo Raised to Market Outperform From Market Perform by Citizens Capital Markets

EQT Corp Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Stephens & Co.

Expand Energy Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Stephens & Co.

Incyte Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by William Blair

Incyte Cut to Neutral From Buy by Guggenheim

IPG Photonics Raised to Buy From Neutral by CL King

Lucid Group Raised to Equal-Weight From Underweight by Morgan Stanley

Paccar Cut to Neutral From Buy by UBS

PepsiCo Cut to Equal-Weight From Overweight by Barclays

Ralph Lauren Raised to Buy From Neutral by Goldman Sachs

Sana Biotechnology Raised to Market Outperform From Market Perform by Citizens Capital Markets

TPI Composites Cut to Underperform From Hold by Jefferies

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 19, 2025 06:23 ET (10:23 GMT)

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