金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，中通(02057)4Q24核心净利润同比增长11%至24.9亿元人民币，符合该行的预期。公司的目标是实现全年包裹量408-422亿件（同比增长20-24%），预计将超过中通预测的15%行业增长。这意味着其战略从盈利能力转向量的增长，该行认为这是由于公司市场份额持续下降（4Q24以包裹量计为18.8%,同比下跌3.5个百分点）。该行将2025-26年盈利预测小幅上调1%。该行将估值基准延展至2025年，将US/2057HK的新目标价下调至32.6美元/256港元。该行新的目标倍数为18倍（之前为22倍），主要基于低于历史平均水平?0.5个标准差，以反映盈利增速放缓。尽管如此，该行仍然看好中通强大的自由现金流能力，足以支持其每半年度的股息支付和股票回购计划（到2025年中可用余额为7.78亿美元）。维持买入评级。
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