恒生银行(00011):维持美联储今年减息3-4次预测 美股回调属健康调整

智通财经
20 Mar

智通财经APP获悉,美联储议息后宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间于4.25-4.5%不变,符合市场预期。恒生银行(00011)经济研究部主管兼首席经济师薛俊升表示,美国政府贸易方面的政策或为当地经济带来下行风险,可能于今年稍后时间增加美联储减息的压力,该行仍预期今年美联储或减息3至4次,每次25个基点。

恒生银行财富管理首席投资总监梁君馡认为,虽然特朗普关税会持续带来经济的不确定性,但美联储仍有充分减息的空间来应对,美债资产承接经济放慢的背景下,有望继续表现强势。

梁君馡亦认为,本轮美股回调属于股市的健康调整,调整后标普500指数目前的估值水平已相对较为合理,4月初美国出台新的对等关税明朗化后,会令投资者对经济整体影响作出较好的判断,避险情绪届时有望下降。加上未来几个月美国政府会推进削减企业税和放宽金融业监管等计划,该行相信美股未来仍不乏催化剂,但投资部署上,应注重企业未来派息增长的能力及防守性,不仅是偏向科技板块。

美联储最新宣布维持利率不变,维持预计今年将减息两次合共50基点,不过预告自4月起将放慢缩表速度。美联储主席鲍威尔强调,关税对通胀影响应仅是“暂时性”。

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