美银证券发表报告，引华润建材科技(01313.HK) 管理层预计，今年首两季度水泥每吨毛利将显著优于去年同期，受惠去年低基数。管理层称1月水泥每吨毛利达40元人民币以上，3至4月每吨毛利将更高，受惠近期价格上涨及煤炭成本降低。
该行指，在有关利润水平下，市场供应纪律仍保持良好，因小型生产商缺乏抢占更高市场份额的动力。该行认为，过去一年半出现的亏损利润率似乎已经过去，预计公司水泥每吨毛利将在今年至2027年逐步恢复至约55至61元人民币，相较去年每吨37元人民币显著扭转。
该行指，公司预计今年华南地区需求将收缩6%至8%，并相应下调今年水泥销售目标至按年跌8%，至5,700万吨。混凝土和骨料销量增长将部分抵消水泥销量减少。该行考虑相关因素，上调对公司今年至2027年盈利预测14%至26%，目标价由1.8元上调至2.1元，维持“买入”评级。(fc/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-03-19 16:25。)
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