MW Wall Street's No. 2 bull holds his ground. The logic? Trump's popularity could get worse.

By Steve Goldstein

White House would be more likely to change course if Trump popularity wanes, says Deutsche Bank

It's been two straight positive days since the S&P 500 entered correction territory, and for all of the headlines about market turmoil, the simplest 401(k) model of 60% stocks and 40% bonds is only down about 1.5% this year.

And not every Wall Street strategist is panicking. The biggest bull remains Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, who reiterates his 7,100 year-end call for the S&P 500. Now alone for second-highest target is Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha, at 7,000. Like Stolfzfus, Chadha and team also aren't budging.

First, the bad news - things can get worse, they said. Investors are still just modestly underweight in how much they hold in stocks.

Trade-policy uncertainty is going to continue, probably at least until the April 2 date when the Trump administration promises to reveal its reciprocal tariff plan. "A move to the bottom of the positioning band which is where it fell to in the last trade war would take the S&P 500 down to 5,250," he said. Yikes.

And it's trade policy that holds the key to Deutsche Bank's view that things in the stock market will get better. Consumer confidence, he points out, already has dropped significantly, but President Donald Trump's approval rating, while not great, hasn't fallen as much.

"While consumer confidence is not a good predictor of consumer spending, it is a significant driver of presidential approval ratings. Compared to the level of consumer confidence, the current approval rating is high, and while that's not unusual at this stage, it implies plenty of room for downside," he said.

If Trump's approval rating were to catch down, so to speak, then there'd be a better chance the administration would step in and change tack.

"If the slide in approval ratings prompts a credible plan to resolve tariff uncertainty, it will allow the business cycle to continue. Equities can bounce back sharply in such a scenario," Chadha said.

The market

U.S. stock futures (ES00) (NQ00) were sagging ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. Gold futures (GC00) climbed. Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y were steady.

   Key asset performance                                                Last       5d     1m       YTD     1y 
   S&P 500                                                              5675.12    1.08%  -7.19%   -3.51%  10.21% 
   Nasdaq Composite                                                     17,808.66  1.95%  -11.08%  -7.78%  10.59% 
   10-year Treasury                                                     4.309      2.40   -24.70   -26.70  1.10 
   Gold                                                                 3034.6     4.89%  4.87%    14.98%  40.24% 
   Oil                                                                  68.65      4.16%  -2.72%   -4.48%  -16.49% 
   Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points 

The buzz

Nvidia $(NVDA)$ Chief Executive Jensen Huang will deliver the keynote address at 1 p.m. for the company's GTC developer's conference.

Alphabet $(GOOGL)$ is in talks to buy cybersecurity startup Wiz for $30 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

President Trump said he was going to have a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Housing starts and industrial production data are due, as the Fed's two-day meeting on interest rates starts.

BYD shares rose in Hong Kong after the Chinese EV maker unveiled a system to charge batteries in just five minutes.

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The chart

Bank of America's monthly fund manager survey saw the biggest monthly decline in allocation to U.S. stocks ever. Their strategists called it a bull crash" but still remarked that these investors are not expecting a recession.

Top tickers

Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

   Ticker  Security name 
   TSLA    Tesla 
   NVDA    Nvidia 
   NIO     Nio 
   GME     GameStop 
   PLTR    Palantir Technologies 
   QBTS    D-Wave Quantum 
   TSM     Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 
   AAPL    Apple 
   INTC    Intel 
   AMZN    Amazon.com 

Random reads

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Scientists determined that iguanas ended up in Fiji through one superlong rafting trip.

A soccer team held a minute's silence to remember a former player who's still alive.

-Steve Goldstein

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March 18, 2025 06:58 ET (10:58 GMT)

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