There will be plenty of events that can catch the eye of investors this week -- semiconductor maker Nvidia's conference, earnings from the likes of General Mills, FedEx, and Nike, and retail sales data. But nothing will get quite as much attention as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Stock markets are in free fall and the geopolitical world order is crumbling as President Donald Trump imposes steep tariffs on imports, pressures Russia and Ukraine, and threatens to annex Greenland and Canada. The big question for Powell at Wednesday's press conference is, what are you going to do?

The answer is nothing. The odds of interest rates staying on hold stands at 99%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. There may be some adjustments to the interest-rate outlook, but don't expect any radical changes.

That's because there is very little Powell and the Fed can do at this point. There's not much evidence of change in hard data yet, which, to be fair, is always published with a substantial lag. On paper, the U.S. economy is still growing well, unemployment is low, and inflation is under control -- the consumer prices index cooled to 2.8% in February, data showed last week.

Even if Powell wanted to get ahead of the curve, it's not obvious what he should do, but we might get a flick of what he is thinking from comments on Wednesday. If he's worried that tariffs might stoke inflation, he could pre-emptively raise rates -- but that would further darken the growth outlook. If he's worried about growth, he could pre-emptively cut rates, but that's tough with inflation still above target. Either decision would make Powell look like he was veering too far into politics.

To be sure, if it becomes clear there's a real emergency like the 2008-09 financial crisis or the Covid-19 pandemic, there is plenty the Fed can do to help. But we're not there yet.

-- Brian Swint

*** Join Barron's senior managing editor Lauren R. Rublin and deputy editor Ben Levisohn today at noon when they speak with Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, about the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks. Sign up here.

***

As President Turns His Back on the Stock Market, Eyes Turn to Central Bank

President Donald Trump and his economic team are sending a message: Hang in there through the turmoil, and better days will come once they have their economic vision in place. But the administration's erratic rollout of tariff policy and slashing government costs prompted a market selloff and stoked recession fears.

   -- In an NBC News poll of registered voters, 54% said they disapprove of 
      Trump's handling of the economy versus 44% who approve. And 55% said they 
      disapprove of Trump's handling of inflation and the cost of living, 
      versus 42% who approve. Overall, 51% disapprove of Trump's job 
      performance. 
 
   -- The S&P 500 fell 2.3% for the week after dropping into a correction, 
      which means a 10% fall from its recent peak. The Dow Jones Industrial 
      Average fell 3% over the past week, and the Nasdaq fell 2.4%. The Dow had 
      its largest two-week point and percentage drop since 2022, according to 
      Dow Jones Market Data. 
 
   -- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC News that corrections are 
      normal, and he's not concerned about recent market performance. "What's 
      not healthy is straight up," he said. Asked if he could guarantee no 
      recession, Bessent responded, "there are no guarantees." A week ago, 
      Trump also refused to rule out a recession. 
 
   -- Falling markets also threaten to sap consumer spending and business 
      investment, two primary engines of economic growth. Harvard economist 
      Gabriel Chodorow-Reich told The Wall Street Journal that a 20% drop in 
      stocks in 2025, with all else equal, could cut growth by as much as a 
      percentage point. 

What's Next: Investors will be paying close attention to remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, after the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Powell will likely be asked about weakness in stocks and whether that had changed the Fed's rate calculus.

-- Matt Peterson and Liz Moyer

***

Nvidia's 'AI Woodstock' Kicks Off as Investors Crave Chip News

Nvidia's annual developers conference unofficially nicknamed the "AI Woodstock" kicks off today with expectations rising for news of its next generation chip Rubin even as it is just making high volume shipments of the star of last year's show, its Blackwell AI chips. CEO Jensen Huang is slated to speak Tuesday.

   -- Some 25,000 people are expected to attend in person in San Jose, The Wall 
      Street Journal reports, adding that Huang is expected to highlight the 
      Blackwell Ultra product during his keynote speech. So far the company has 
      only teased its Rubin AI chips. 
 
   -- Nvidia's website says Huang is expected to share what's next in agentic 
      artificial intelligence, robotics, predictive intelligence and 
      accelerated computing, to name a few. It is highlighting panel 
      discussions of quantum computing and the rise of humanoid robots. 
 
   -- The week features 2,000 speakers over 1,000 sessions and about 400 
      exhibitors. Although it isn't due for release until 2026, the Rubin chip 
      is expected to deliver a "big, big" step up in computing power, Huang has 
      said. 
 
   -- Nvidia has faced worries about in-house chips made by its biggest 
      customers including Alphabet's Google and Amazon. Nvidia shares, which 
      helped guide last year's rally in Magnificent Seven tech stocks, are down 
      9% so far this year. 

What's Next: Analysts are expecting the company's data center business to reach $237 billion in sales for the fiscal year ending in January 2027, and the business' annual revenue could reach over $300 billion in 2029, the Journal reported, citing estimates from Visible Alpha.

-- Liz Moyer

***

Stranded NASA Astronauts Could Return to Earth This Week

The SpaceX capsule that docked at the International Space Station early Sunday means that the two NASA astronauts who have been stranded on the orbiting research laboratory since last June will finally be returning to Earth. They could leave the Space Station as soon as Wednesday.

   -- Barry Wilmore and Sunita Williams flew to the ISS aboard Boeing's 
      Starliner last June on the spacecraft's first crewed voyage. What was 
      supposed to be an eight-day mission stretched into nine months, after 
      Starliner's propulsion system issues prompted NASA to decide against 
      having Boeing bring them back. 
 
   -- Boeing is still aiming to get NASA certification to fly regular missions. 
      SpaceX has now transported 11 crews to the ISS, including the four 
      astronauts from the U.S., Japan, and Russia on Sunday, and is still the 
      only U.S. company certified for regular missions. 
 
   -- Now that NASA has two American spacecraft docked at the Space Station, 
      Wilmore and Williams will return on the SpaceX spacecraft that arrived at 
      the ISS in September with two astronauts and two empty seats. 
 
   -- SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said on X that Starship will depart for Mars at the 
      end of 2026, carrying an Optimus AI-trained humanoid robot. "If those 
      landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 
      2031 is more likely," he said. 

What's Next: Musk's Tesla aims to start selling Optimus robots later this year. Tesla is also slated to launch a robotaxi service as soon as June. Musk and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang believe that the "robotics era" including self-driving cars and humanoid robots is just around the corner.

-- Janet H. Cho and Al Root

***

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Adds to Japan Stakes

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway said Monday that it had added to its stakes in five of the biggest Japanese trading houses. It raised holdings in Itochu, Sumitomo, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, and Mitsui, regulatory filings on Monday showed, upping its stakes to between 8.5% and 9.8%.

   -- Buffett started snapping up stock in the five trading houses in July 
      2019, and the Oracle of Omaha said in a letter to shareholders last month 
      that Berkshire would likely add to its positions in the Japanese 
      companies. 
 
   -- U.S. stocks have tumbled over the past month amid worries that President 
      Donald Trump's tariffs will trigger a flare-up in inflation and drag down 
      growth. The benchmark S&P 500 is trading at 20 times projected earnings 
      for the next 12 months, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index goes for 17 times, 
      suggesting it's priced at a discount to its American peers. 
 
   -- Ironically, the U.S. selloff has lifted the value of Buffett's life's 
      work -- boosting Berkshire stock, with investors pivoting away from tech 
      stocks and into safer assets. 
 
   -- While "Magnificent Seven" members such as Nvidia and Tesla have plummeted, 
      Berkshire shares are up 14% already this year -- swelling the company's 
      total market capitalization to about $1.1 trillion. 

What's Next: Berkshire upping its Japan bet suggests Buffett thinks there's value to be found abroad. Investors should see the move as a sign that now might be a good time to go shopping outside the U.S. stock market.

-- George Glover

***

Investors Could See More Activism in 2025 Proxy Season

From high-profile fights over board seats to shareholders placing proposals on company proxies, companies holding their annual meetings this spring could face increased financial pressure from activists and possible reputational risk. Recently, activists have targeted several retailers, including Macy's, Starbucks, VF Corp, and Mattel.

   -- The past three years were the busiest on record for shareholder activism, 
      with an average of 236 activist campaigns a year, compared with a prior 
      three-year high of 223 campaigns annually from 2017 to 2019, according to 
      a Barclays study. 
 
   -- Expectations that the Trump administration will ease regulations on 
      mergers and acquisitions could spur activists to agitate for more mergers, 
      sales, and spinoffs. If conditions improve, private-equity firms could 
      jump back into activism, said Christopher Couvelier, a managing director 
      in Lazard's Capital Markets Advisory group. 
 
   -- Activist hedge funds are often drawn to companies in sectors that are in 
      flux or prone to disruption, Couvelier says. Since the pandemic, new 
      consumption patterns, fluctuations in demand, staffing challenges, and 
      supply-chain snafus have created upheaval in the retail sector. 
 
   -- Shifting attitudes are also empowering activism. Proposals against 
      corporate diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives doubled to 30 in 
      the 2024 proxy season from 2023, a Harvard Law School study found. 
      Pro-DEI proposals submitted by shareholders dropped to 42 in 2024, from 
      90 the previous year. 

What's Next: Falling interest rates could draw more private equity firms back into activism. Couvelier tells Barron's these firms have "massive heaps" of money to invest, possibly by teaming up with activists following the example at Macy's when Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital tried to take the retailer private last year.

-- Sabrina Escobar and Janet H. Cho

***

MarketWatch Wants to Hear From You

I keep reading about cuts to services at the Social Security Administration. So if I have a problem with Social Security, am I just out of luck? When will this all get fixed?

A MarketWatch correspondent will answer this question soon. Meanwhile, send any questions you would like answered to thebarronsdaily@barrons.com.

***

-- Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O'Donnell, Rupert Steiner

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 17, 2025 06:36 ET (10:36 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.