Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks' without any revenue, let alone profit. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' Loss making companies can act like a sponge for capital - so investors should be cautious that they're not throwing good money after bad.
Despite being in the age of tech-stock blue-sky investing, many investors still adopt a more traditional strategy; buying shares in profitable companies like Greenbrier Companies (NYSE:GBX). Now this is not to say that the company presents the best investment opportunity around, but profitability is a key component to success in business.
Check out our latest analysis for Greenbrier Companies
If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. That makes EPS growth an attractive quality for any company. Recognition must be given to the that Greenbrier Companies has grown EPS by 53% per year, over the last three years. That sort of growth rarely ever lasts long, but it is well worth paying attention to when it happens.
It's often helpful to take a look at earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins, as well as revenue growth, to get another take on the quality of the company's growth. It's noted that Greenbrier Companies' revenue from operations was lower than its revenue in the last twelve months, so that could distort our analysis of its margins. Unfortunately, Greenbrier Companies' revenue dropped 9.4% last year, but the silver lining is that EBIT margins improved from 6.4% to 9.9%. While not disastrous, these figures could be better.
You can take a look at the company's revenue and earnings growth trend, in the chart below. For finer detail, click on the image.
Fortunately, we've got access to analyst forecasts of Greenbrier Companies' future profits. You can do your own forecasts without looking, or you can take a peek at what the professionals are predicting.
It should give investors a sense of security owning shares in a company if insiders also own shares, creating a close alignment their interests. So it is good to see that Greenbrier Companies insiders have a significant amount of capital invested in the stock. Holding US$52m worth of stock in the company is no laughing matter and insiders will be committed in delivering the best outcomes for shareholders. This should keep them focused on creating long term value for shareholders.
Greenbrier Companies' earnings per share have been soaring, with growth rates sky high. That EPS growth certainly is attention grabbing, and the large insider ownership only serves to further stoke our interest. At times fast EPS growth is a sign the business has reached an inflection point, so there's a potential opportunity to be had here. So at the surface level, Greenbrier Companies is worth putting on your watchlist; after all, shareholders do well when the market underestimates fast growing companies. It's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Greenbrier Companies (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
While opting for stocks without growing earnings and absent insider buying can yield results, for investors valuing these key metrics, here is a carefully selected list of companies in the US with promising growth potential and insider confidence.
Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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