金吾财讯 | 交银国际发研报指，理想汽车(02015)4季度汽车毛利率低于预期，利息收入贡献下净利润符合预期。理想指引1季度销量8.8-9.3万辆，测算3月销量为3.2-3.7万辆，反映3月降价有效刺激销量回暖。但从ASP来看，1季度环比持续下滑至~25万元，低于预期。该行下调2025年销量预测7.5%至55.8万辆，主要反映该行对L系和纯电新车型销量的担忧。目前市场给予理想的估值约为1.1-1.3倍2025年市销率，虽然较小鹏的2倍为低，但该行认为只有今年的L系改款和纯电新车销量超预期情况下市场才会对理想重估。该行指其增长面临挑战，下调理想评级至中性，目标价下调至93.6港元/24.1美元，对应1.1倍2025年市销率。
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