Memory-maker Micron Technology has steep revenue cycles, and investors are always trying to gauge the timing on the current cycle.
They'll get another opportunity after the market closes Thursday, when Micron reports its fiscal second-quarter earnings.
Wall Street analysts are expecting adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.43, up 240% from last year. Sales are estimated to rise 36% to $7.9 billion.
Last time Micron reported earnings in December, there were small hints that the cycle for memory purchases might be turning down; the stock fell 16% the next day. A quarter earlier, Micron's revenue was up 93%.
Some investors have seen those latest results as a signal to look for an exit.
Micron stock frequently looks undervalued near the top of the cycle. It currently trades at 11.5 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, versus 23.8 for the PHLX Semiconductor index and 20.3 for the S&P 500.
But investors also have to be open to the possibility that this cycle is different because of AI investment. Memory is a key component of AI servers, and analysts expect DRAM sales growth to average 31% over the next six quarters. This is offset by weaker performance in storage, averaging 12% growth in analyst estimates.
If they are right, that could mean the cycle looks different from others, with growth extending out as long as the AI investment boom continues. If they are wrong, Micron stock could be on the verge of another sharp downturn.
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