By Mackenzie Tatananni

Winners and losers are set to emerge from the "Silver Tsunami" as an aging population triggers profound changes across multiple sectors, Mizuho analysts say.

People who are 75 and older will compose 10% of the total population in the U.S. by 2030, representing a 7.5% increase from current numbers. Based on Mizuho's analysis, total spending among this age group could surge from $900 billion in 2023 to $1.6 trillion to 2030.

The Silver Tsunami refers to baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964 reaching retirement age. "Corporate America still needs to focus on this shift, and AI (Aging Intelligence) will be a differentiator," the analysts wrote.

Mizuho identified 11 stocks that have the most room to rise. The list ranges from the home improvement retailer Home Depot to the stock-trading platform Robinhood Markets and the pharmaceutical company Biogen. Certain spending categories are expected to emerge as "net winners" and "net challenged" as the U.S. population ages, the analysts said.

They remain "relatively bullish" on nutrition, recommending Simply Good Foods, the maker of low-carb, low-sugar, and high-protein products. Barron's named Simply as a stock pick in November.

Mizuho's research indicates that 53% of the population aged 60 and older "does not consume plant-based meat and has no intention of ever consuming the product," though it regularly spends on protein nutrition products. "Overall, we expect a minimal impact from an aging population but note that specialized nutrition may outperform as a category and plant-based meat may suffer," the analysts wrote.

Home-improvement stocks stand to benefit because seniors typically own older homes. That makes Home Depot a safe bet, the analysts said.

Spending should also increase for hobbies and pets, as older people spend more time at home. On the flip side, spending on cars and repairs should decline.

Shopping patterns could change as well as older people account for a bigger share of the population. "As older generations become less capable of mobility, we believe shopping habits could see a mix shift from in-store toward hybrid and online," the analysts wrote, saying DoorDash is a potential gainer.

An aging population is also correlated with a growing need for retirement communities. Mizuho recommends Ventas, a real estate investment trust focused on senior housing and healthcare properties. Healthcare infrastructure company Welltower could be another winner.

The shift to an older population is unlikely to radically transform the biotech sector because drug development has long focused on older patients, the analysts said. But it could change the size of the market for treatments of certain diseases, and in fields such as ophthalmology.

Mizuho nodded to Biogen, which makes medicines for Alzheimer's disease and multiple sclerosis. Another stock on the list is EyePoint Pharmaceuticals, a therapeutics company focused on treatments for eye disorders.

The market for devices associated with aging, such as glaucoma stents and knee replacements, is expected to grow fivefold over the next decade, Mizuho said. Glaukos, the ophthalmic medical tech company, is just one stock that is poised to see gains there, according to the analysts.

Insurance and hospitals are beneficiaries, too. Membership in Medicare Advantage, a private alternative to Medicare, is anticipated to grow around six times faster than the total insurance industry, based on Mizuho's research.

Hospital volume growth is also expected to reach the "high end" of its historical growth rate of 2% to 4%. That should lift stocks such as Encompass Health.

Other stock picks, such as Rockwell Automation, are less intuitive. The analysts foresee a heightened need for automation, as boomers retire from manufacturing jobs. Currently, for every five boomers who retire from manufacturing, there are only two workers to replace them.

Another winner is financials. "In the next decade, we are likely to observe the largest transfer of wealth in history," the analysts wrote.

The firm's analysis indicates that seniors account for over 40% of all stockholdings and a fair amount of real estate assets. As that money is passed down to younger generations, this will likely benefit Robinhood, seeing as the company has more millennial and Gen Z active users than other top brokerages, Mizuho wrote.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

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March 17, 2025 13:26 ET (17:26 GMT)

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