US natural gas prices ease to 2-week low on record output, negative Waha prices

Reuters
17 Mar
US natural gas prices ease to 2-week low on record output, negative Waha prices

Spot gas prices at Waha Hub in Texas turn negative

US gas output on track to hit record high in March

US LNG export feed gas on track to hit record high in March

By Scott DiSavino

March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased to a two-week low on Monday on record output, negative spot prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas and forecasts for the weather to remain mild through the start of April, which should keep the amount of gas utilities pull from storage to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles, however, remained about 12% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold in January and February forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. [EIA /GAS] NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 2.8 cents, or 0.7%, to $4.076 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:55 a.m. EDT (1255 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since February 28.

That futures price decline occurred despite record gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas export $(LNG)$ plants and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected.

In the spot market, gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian shale in West Texas turned negative for the first time since November 2024 due to pipeline maintenance that was trapping gas associated with oil production in the basin.

Traders talked of maintenance on U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's GKM.N El Paso Natural Gas pipe from Texas, New Mexico and Colorado to California and Arizona and WhiteWater, MPLX MPLX.N and Enbridge's ENB.TO Whistler pipeline from West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

With gas futures down about 7% last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental exchanges for a second time in three weeks to the lowest since late February, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 1.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 107.2 bcfd this week to 107.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Mar 14 Forecast

Week ended Mar 7 Actual

Year ago Mar 14

Five-year average

Mar 14

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-19

-62

+5

-31

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

1,679

1,698

2,331

1,897

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-11.5

-11.9%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

4.18

4.10

1.75

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

13.23

13.44

8.54

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.64

13.67

8.95

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

229

222

255

246

252

U.S. GFS CDDs

18

17

10

20

16

U.S. GFS TDDs

247

239

265

266

268

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

105.7

106.2

105.6

101.6

97.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

9.1

8.9

9.4

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

114.7

115.0

115.0

N/A

105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

3.8

4.1

4.1

N/A

3.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.2

5.9

6.2

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

15.5

16.1

15.8

13.1

11.8

U.S. Commercial

11.2

10.4

10.6

11.9

11.8

U.S. Residential

17.2

15.8

15.5

17.7

18.3

U.S. Power Plant

25.9

23.9

24.1

30.8

27.5

U.S. Industrial

23.7

23.5

23.8

24.5

23.8

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.5

3.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

85.6

81.1

81.6

92.7

90.1

Total U.S. Demand

111.1

107.2

107.7

N/A

110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

93

93

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

90

90

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

91

91

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Mar 21

Week ended Mar 14

2024

2023

2022

Wind

20

15

11

10

11

Solar

5

7

5

4

3

Hydro

7

7

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

32

34

42

41

38

Coal

13

16

16

17

21

Nuclear

21

20

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.89

3.89

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.79

3.33

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.70

3.71

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.72

3.17

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

3.20

3.26

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

3.00

3.42

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.82

3.94

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

-0.79

0.33

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.62

1.55

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

41.07

51.39

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

45.70

46.84

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

38.10

39.57

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

23.88

18.71

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

24.53

25.00

text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSE terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSE terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SOL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SOL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGSFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: EMPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10