0342 GMT - Australia's Tyro Payments is likely to face competition from global payments consolidator Shift4 in its attempt to acquire Smartpay, Wilsons analysts reckon. Tyro has proposed offering Smartpay shareholders a 70% premium to the stock's last closing level in an effort to take full ownership of its local payments peer. The Wilsons analysts point out in a note to clients that Smartpay has already received an indicative proposal from an unidentified international party. They say they have reasons to believe that Shift4 is that suitor, but don't detail any specific supporting evidence. Smartpay's Australia-listed shares are up 49% at A$0.7875. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0252 GMT - BlueScope Steel looks close to fully priced following a recent rally on U.S. steel tariffs, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Scott. Shares in the Australian steelmaker--which runs a mill in the U.S., among other operations--have climbed by roughly 23% this year. Citing a call with a U.S. steel trader, Scott says demand doesn't appear to be consistent with current steel prices and that even with tariffs, steel can be sold into the U.S. at levels well below spot values. Expectations are for lower steel prices from here, especially as industry capacity rises following maintenance at some mills, he says. MS retains an equal-weight rating on BlueScope, with a A$24.00 target. The stock is up 2.0% at A$23.02. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0246 GMT - A steep selloff in Mineral Resources leads UBS to reverse its rating, upgrading the stock to buy from sell. The Australian miner's shares have fallen by nearly 30% year to date, adding to a more than 50% loss in 2024. UBS analysts say their earlier sell recommendation was based on the company's high operational and fiscal leverage to iron ore and lithium prices at a time when the outlook for both had deteriorated. The company also faced a significant debt burden and governance issues. "While those concerns haven't fully resolved yet, we have reassessed funding and operational scenarios with resultant EPS upgrades of 6%/45% in FY26/27" estimates, they say. "We see enough upside to upgrade to a buy rating, with revised A$28.60/share price target" compared with A$33.00 previously. Mineral Resources is up 9.2% at A$23.97. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0234 GMT - Qantas bulls at Goldman Sachs see the recent wobble in the Australian carrier's shares being related to concerns over the performance of U.S. airlines rather than any notable issue at home. Mulling a 13% share-price decline across seven sessions through March 13, the investment bank's analysts point to recent weaker-than-expected March-quarter updates by United, Delta and American. However, they remind clients in a note that Qantas's recent June-half domestic outlook beat their prior forecast, while its international performance is stabilizing. Qantas should also get a boost from this year's closer-than-usual proximity of three public holidays to each other, they add. GS has a buy rating and A$11.80 target price on the stock, which is down 2.5% at A$8.805. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0200 GMT - Liontown Resources will need to prudently manage costs moving forward, especially if spodumene prices do not improve, Macquarie analysts say in a note. "LTR is navigating challenging waters in a difficult lithium market," the analysts say. They are wary about Liontown's relatively high rate of gearing and say higher-than-expected 1H capital expenditure weighed on free cash flow. Still, they note that the miner posted strong underlying Ebitda for the period as well as a smaller-than-expected loss. Recoveries also continue to improve. Macquarie maintains a neutral rating and a target price of A$0.65 on Liontown. The stock is up 8.5% at A$0.70. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0103 GMT - Liontown doesn't think the market's consensus estimate on its cash position is right, Citi analyst Kate McCutcheon says. Consensus has cash at June-end around A$100 million--Citi's estimate is roughly A$120 million, or A$140 million at spot prices--with Liontown "noting they hold a different view," McCutcheon says. Liontown remains highly leveraged to lithium prices, says McCutcheon. Liontown reckons spot lithium prices below US$900/metric ton are unsustainable, she notes. "Can't argue with optimism?" she says. Citi has a neutral rating and A$0.60 target on Liontown. The stock is up 6.2% at A$0.685. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0035 GMT - Australia's Treasury Wine Estates could get a boost if President Trump follows through on threats to impose hefty tariffs on European wine imports into the U.S., Citi analyst Sam Teeger says. He points out in a note to clients that 80% of Treasury's Americas sales are made in the U.S. Teeger reckons that U.S. consumers could switch as a result of higher prices, while European producers could cut their U.S. advertising. He says that European producers may reallocate wine to other markets such as China, where the impact on Treasury could be limited by the strength of its Penfolds brand. Citi keeps a buy rating and A$13.85 target price on the stock, which is up 3.4% at A$10.12. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2332 GMT - WiseTech Global's bull at Citi wouldn't be surprised to see the logistics software provider use August's annual results announcement to announce more global rollouts of its CargoWise platform. Analyst Siraj Ahmed thinks that rollouts with Asian forwarders are most likely. He adds that discussions with DSV and other industry participants suggests that DSV is likely to stick with CargoWise at least in the near term. Ahmed tells clients in a note that analyst forecasts for fiscal 2025 are probably a bit high, but he sees potential for larger-than-expected upside from WiseTech's CargoWise Next platform in fiscal 2026. Citi keeps a buy rating and A$115.00 target price on the stock, which is up 1.4% at A$86.15. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 16, 2025 23:57 ET (03:57 GMT)

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