MW Why sportsbooks really need March Madness bettors to lose this year

By Weston Blasi

Plus: The highest-earning players and coaches in this year's tournament

After reporting that they lost more money than usual during the most recent NFL season and last year's March Madness, sportsbooks like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment's FLUT FanDuel hope to be more profitable during this year's "Big Dance."

And there will be a lot of money at play. An estimated $3.1 billion is expected to be legally wagered on the men's and women's college basketball tournaments this year, a 14.81% increase from $2.7 billion in 2024, according to the American Gaming Association, a gambling-industry group. That figure is more than double the $1.39 billion estimated to have been wagered on 2025's Super Bowl LIX.

Sportsbooks hope to keep hundreds of millions of the dollars being wagered on the basketball tournaments, particularly given the companies' poor performances during the most recent NFL season.

The 2024-25 NFL season was the most successful betting season in history for fans, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses for sportsbooks including FanDuel $(FLUT)$ and DraftKings $(DKNG)$. Sportsbooks have described the most recent NFL season the most "customer-friendly" football season that online sportsbooks have ever had.

Sportsbooks, which had their "most successful" Super Bowl in history this year after the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs and several prop bets went in their favor, are looking to build on that momentum in 2025.

DraftKings Chief Executive Jason Robins admitted during the company's earnings call last month that the outcomes of the 2024 March Madness NCAA basketball tournaments were not friendly for the sportsbooks, either.

"It was unfavorable last year," Robins said, likely referring to the favorite the University of Connecticut's win in the men's tournament, an outcome that was favorable for public bettors.

While the $3.1 billion in bets will be a record, the total amount wagered on March Madness will be even higher than estimates show, because those only account for legal wagers made through licensed sportsbooks. Illegal wagers made through offshore unlicensed sportsbooks, as well as bets made through office pools or squares contests, should take the total amount much higher.

"March Madness is one of the most exciting times in American sports, with fans fired up for both the men's and women's NCAA tournaments," Joe Maloney, senior vice president of strategic communications at the AGA, wrote to MarketWatch. "As legal wagering expands across the U.S., more fans than ever have the opportunity to bet legally and responsibly."

Some 38 U.S. states plus Washington, D.C. - covering about 70% of the American adult population - now allow some form of sports betting. Missouri and North Carolina have both legalized online sports betting since the start of 2024.

See also: Women's March Madness teams are being paid for the first time - but they're splitting $200 million less than the men

In addition to the record-setting amounts being bet this March, here are some other numbers that fans will be watching.

Highest-paid player: Cooper Flagg

Duke University's Cooper Flagg is widely expected to be the first overall pick in the 2025 NBA draft, but he's already making millions of dollars as a college basketball player. Flagg has an estimated name, image and likeness value of $4.8 million, the highest in college basketball, according to On3's NIL tracker. Flagg was injured last week and his status for the tournament remains unclear.

Louisiana State University guard Flau'jae Johnson is the top NIL earner entering the women's March Madness tournament, at $1.5 million. On3's proprietary NIL algorithm is based on NIL-deal data, performance, influence and exposure.

Teams in the women's bracket will be paid for playing March Madness games this year for the first time, as men's teams have been for decades. Women's teams - not individual players - will be splitting winnings that total $200 million less than the men's teams will receive.

Highest-paid coach: $9.6 million

Bill Self of the University of Kansas is the highest-paid college basketball coach in the country, with a salary of $9.6 million, and his team has made it into the NCAA tournament once again. On the women's side, Louisiana State University's Kim Mulkey is the highest paid at $3.3 million, according to USA Today's tracker.

Corporate losses: $17 billion

March Madness is must-see TV, and that could present a problem for some employers. It's estimated there will be $17 billion in corporate losses due to unproductive workers during the tournament, according to a study conducted by WalletHub.

Despite that productivity loss, local economies see a boost from hosting the tournament. The early rounds of the tournament are scattered throughout the U.S., while the later stages are played in one location. The Final Four and championship games for the men's bracket will be played in San Antonio, Texas, which will see an estimated $400 million in economic impact, per WalletHub.

Odds: 1 in 9.2 quintillion

The odds of someone filling out a perfect bracket for either tournament are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Those odds are so low that a person would be more likely to win the Powerball multiple times.

Billionaire investor and Berkshire Hathaway Chair Warren Buffett understands probability as well as anybody, and for years he has been offering $1 billion to anyone who fills out a perfect bracket. He has never had to pay out.

Buffett is trying to make his contest easier this year, lowering the difficulty level and offering a $1 million prize to anyone who picks the winner of at least 30 of the tournament's first 32 games. If nobody satisfies the prize requirements, a $250,000 consolation prize will be given to the person who selects the most winners.

"Just think of the excitement it would create all over the place if somebody gets a million instead," Buffet told the Wall Street Journal the day after brackets were finalized. "I hope it's this year. We made it easier this year than ever."

The odds of filling out two perfect brackets - for both the men's and women's tournaments - are 1 in 8.46 undecillion, a number that has 36 zeros. There has never been a perfect bracket, and the longest perfect bracket game streak to start a tournament was 49 games, according to the NCAA.

-Weston Blasi

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March 18, 2025 11:08 ET (15:08 GMT)

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