Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC)?

Simply Wall St.
Yesterday

SPS Commerce (NASDAQ:SPSC) has had a rough three months with its share price down 35%. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. In this article, we decided to focus on SPS Commerce's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

View our latest analysis for SPS Commerce

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for SPS Commerce is:

9.0% = US$77m ÷ US$855m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.09 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

SPS Commerce's Earnings Growth And 9.0% ROE

When you first look at it, SPS Commerce's ROE doesn't look that attractive. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 15%. Although, we can see that SPS Commerce saw a modest net income growth of 16% over the past five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

We then compared SPS Commerce's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 20% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

NasdaqGS:SPSC Past Earnings Growth March 18th 2025

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for SPSC? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is SPS Commerce Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

SPS Commerce doesn't pay any regular dividends, meaning that all of its profits are being reinvested in the business, which explains the fair bit of earnings growth the company has seen.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that SPS Commerce certainly does have some positive factors to consider. That is, a decent growth in earnings backed by a high rate of reinvestment. However, we do feel that that earnings growth could have been higher if the business were to improve on the low ROE rate. Especially given how the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits. On studying current analyst estimates, we found that analysts expect the company to continue its recent growth streak. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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