US natgas prices jump 5%to one-week high on record LNG flows, daily output drop

Reuters
20 Mar
UPDATE 1-US natgas prices jump 5%to one-week high on record LNG flows, daily output drop

US gas output on track to hit monthly record in March

US LNG export feedgas set to hit monthly record in March

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

March 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a one-week high on Wednesday on record flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants and a second drop in daily output.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 19.5 cents, or 4.8%, to settle at $4.247 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since March 11.

The price increase occurred despite forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected with the weather forecast to remain seasonally mild through early April.

That decline in demand should reduce the amount of gas utilities need to pull from storage in coming weeks.

Gas stockpiles, however, were already around 11% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. [EIA /GAS] NGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.

On a daily basis, output over the past two days was on track to drop by around 2.8 bcfd to a preliminary three-week low of 103.9 bcfd on Wednesday.

Traders said the daily drop was likely related to spring pipeline maintenance in Texas and other states, which helped cause spot prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas to turn negative in recent days. The traders noted that preliminary output data is often updated later in the day.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 3.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 106.7 bcfd this week to 109.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Mar 14 Forecast

Week ended Mar 7 Actual

Year ago Mar 14

Five-year average

Mar 14

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-3

-62

+5

-31

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

1,695

1,698

2,331

1,897

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-10.6%

-11.9%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

4.15

4.05

1.75

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

13.60

13.06

8.54

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.11

13.18

8.95

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

235

240

255

246

244

U.S. GFS CDDs

21

19

10

20

17

U.S. GFS TDDs

256

259

265

266

261

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

105.7

105.9

105.9

101.6

97.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

9.1

8.8

9.2

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

114.7

114.7

115.1

N/A

105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

3.8

4.0

4.0

N/A

3.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.2

5.7

6.1

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

15.5

15.9

15.7

13.1

11.8

U.S. Commercial

11.2

10.3

11.3

11.9

11.8

U.S. Residential

17.2

15.4

16.6

17.7

18.3

U.S. Power Plant

25.9

24.4

24.4

30.8

27.5

U.S. Industrial

23.7

23.4

24.0

24.5

23.8

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.5

3.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

85.6

81.0

83.9

92.7

90.1

Total U.S. Demand

111.1

106.7

109.8

N/A

110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

93

93

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

89

90

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

90

91

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Mar 21

Week ended Mar 14

2024

2023

2022

Wind

18

15

11

10

11

Solar

6

7

5

4

3

Hydro

7

7

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

33

34

42

41

38

Coal

14

16

16

17

21

Nuclear

20

20

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

4.17

4.15

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

3.10

3.25

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.83

3.86

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

3.05

3.09

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

3.34

3.32

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

3.38

3.42

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.82

3.78

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.08

1.53

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.45

1.61

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

38.50

41.54

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

46.58

49.44

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

56.78

40.26

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

18.00

14.36

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

11.01

4.83

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and Diane Craft)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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