金吾财讯 | 国证国际发研报指，华润啤酒(00291)24年实现总营业收入386.35亿元，同比减少0.8%；实现净利润47.6亿元，同比减少8.7%，扣除一次性收入及费用的EBIT为63.4亿，同比增长2.9%。该行表示，24年一方面消费意愿较为薄弱，尤其是餐饮和夜场渠道需求不振，另一方面进入7-9月旺季全国天气较凉，影响啤酒消费。在此背景下，整体销量下降2.5%，但高档以上销量同比增长9%，次高及以上产品销量基本持平，喜力增速近20%，老雪、红爵销量近翻倍，中档以上销量占比超过50%。销售单价同比增长1.5%，每千升毛利增长4.9%。该行续指，啤酒和白酒业务都是坡长雪厚的优质赛道，行业格局明显改善。在优秀的管理层带领下，该行长期继续看好华润啤酒的发展前景，当下已经极为低估。考虑到高端化进入后半段，未来增速放缓，该行下调25/26/27年净利润至52.2/54.4/56.8亿元，对应每EPS收益为1.73/1.80/1.88港元。维持“买入”评级，考虑当前港股市场情绪，上调目标价至41.8港元，较当前股价有38%的上涨空间。
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