【券商聚焦】华泰证券:压力减弱叠加消费回温,关注物管机会

金吾财讯
19 Mar

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示,21年以来,房地产市场调整对物管行业形成“拖累”,主要体现在规模拓展降速、增值服务受阻、应收账款压力、独立性质疑等方面。随着房地产市场迈过“最坏时刻”,房地产对物管行业的“拖累”可能也在减弱:1、非业主增值服务有望逐步回稳;2、社区增值服务中的经纪和装修业务有望逐步恢复弹性;3、关联房企应收账款和物管公司经营独立性的担忧已经得到有效化解;4、部分房企在核心城市积极拿地,拿地强度预期上升,有望为对应物管公司股价表现带来催化。该行预计在促消费政策组合拳的呵护下,25年全国社零增速有望改善。消费回暖对于物业管理板块而言,有望从商管和社区增值服务两方面带来业绩提振:1、对于布局商管业务的公司,在管购物中心零售额的复苏有望带动租金和商管费增速的回升;2、社区增值服务有望恢复弹性。该行看好物管板块边际改善带来的投资机会,建议投资者关注以下几个方向:1、可选消费属性更为突出的标的,例如商管业务毛利占比较高,或社区增值服务毛利占比较高的公司;2、盈利具备韧性,同时现金流稳健的高股息(或具备高股息潜力)标的;3、历史风险化解较为充分且市拓维持规模的部分民企标的。

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