The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1131 ET - Base metal prices fall, with LME three-month copper down 0.5% at $9,855 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 1.1% at $2,627.50 a ton. Copper sits up 0.6% on week as concerns over potential U.S. import tariffs continue to dominate market sentiment, Neil Welsh at Britannia Global Markets says in a note. At the same time, copper on the U.S. commodity exchange Comex is approaching record high price levels, with the copper arbitrage remaining a key market focus, Welsh says. Investors appear to be reallocating capital from tech stocks and cryptocurrencies into gold and industrial metals, seeking stability amid inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties, Welsh says. Tightening supply and a persistent deficit in copper concentrates could sustain elevated prices, he adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

1051 ET - ICE cotton futures are down in morning trading, with a downward trend in cotton continuing for another day as retaliatory tariffs from China appear to be having a significant effect on demand for U.S. crops. Chinese purchases of U.S. cotton are down approximately 80% year over year, according to Chinese government data. This, along with an approximately 70% decrease in large autos and LNG down over 40%, is evidence of the fallout of the trade war, says SP Angel in a note. "All goods were subject to new Chinese import tariffs," says the firm. If cotton settles lower today, it'll be the fifth consecutive session that ICE cotton has fallen, according to FactSet data -- and the sixth lower session out of the past seven. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1041 ET - The updated compensation plan submitted by OPEC+ members that have produced above their agreed levels would imply a tightening of supply in 2Q, negating the group's announced gradual unwinding in coming months, but "whether the overproducers follow through is another question," says Kieran Tompkins of Capital Economics. A potential resumption of exports from Kurdistan complicates Iraq's pledged compensation, while the expansion at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield and presence of independent oil majors makes it hard for officials there to reduce output. "While at face value these compensation cuts should enable the OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, that have shouldered the bulk of output cuts so far, to finally raise output again, it could quite easily be the start of the next chapter in internal OPEC+ tensions," Tompkins says. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1020 ET - The most-active lean hog futures contract on the CME, having moved to June from May on Thursday, is up 1.5%--with traders focused on decreased hog slaughters. "Wednesday's slaughter estimate got downwardly revised to 358K head and yesterday's 471K head was still not quite back to normal after Wednesday's storms," says StoneX in a note. Live cattle futures continue to climb, moving closer to the record highs reached earlier this year. The most-active contract is up 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0946 ET - U.S. natural gas futures move back above $4 after selling off yesterday when the EIA reported the first inventory build of the year. "The injection was seen as a near-term negative happening a couple of weeks early," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Still, "European and U.S. storage levels remain low for this time of year so early spring temperatures will be a key factor to monitor." Cooler weather forecast for the U.S. Northeast and strong LNG demand are keeping prices near the $4 level, he adds. The Nymex front month is up 1.2% at $4.022/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0942 ET - Oil futures are giving back some gains made on the U.S. sanctioning of a Chinese refinery that buys Iranian oil, and OPEC+ details of members' updated plans to compensate for producing above agreed levels. Fresh U.S. actions against Iran have raised expectations of tighter global supply, and the OPEC+ compensation could lend additional support, although traders remain hesitant "as they assess the real impact of these developments," Joseph Darieh of Tickmill says in a note. WTI is off 0.4% at $67.80 a barrel as the front month switches to May. Brent is down 0.5% at $71.64 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0939 ET - CBOT grains are mixed with most active corn down 0.2%, soybeans also off 0.2%, but wheat up 0.2%. "Overnight grain volume was slow as the markets look to slink into the end of the week, with another full week yet to go before the major March 31 USDA plantings and stocks reports date-which also generally gives way to the unofficial start of U.S. planting season, or at least the market's attention shift to it," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Also approaching is the April 2 deadline for reciprocal tariffs from the Trump Administration. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0934 ET - The recent dollar weakening "isn't necessarily that concerning," First Eagle's Idanna Appio says. She is watching FX market for any signs that the dollar may be losing its save haven status and doesn't strengthen when investors seek protection. It isn't her base case scenario, but "it would make our life more challenging because we are running very large fiscal deficits," she says. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.1% and is bound to end the week pretty much where it started. The greenback strengthens 0.2% versus the euro and weakens slightly against the yen, amid risk-off sentiment in Wall Street. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0828 ET - Gold futures hold steady after a record high as U.S. economic slowdown fears persist. Futures are flat at $3,043.20 a troy ounce, holding near the record high of $3,065.20 an ounce set on Thursday. The precious metal rallied as U.S. yields and the dollar slid following Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, SP Angel analysts say in a note. The Fed's latest economic projections raised unemployment and inflation expectations and cautioned of weaker growth. This is supporting gold prices, which are also benefiting from trade tensions as market focus shifts to new U.S. reciprocal tariff implementations on April 2, SP Angel says. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0735 ET - Base metal prices fall, with LME three-month copper down 0.55% at $9,855 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 1% at $2,630 a ton. Copper prices remain elevated, up 1.1% on-week after briefly rising above the $10,000 a ton mark on Thursday. The rise on U.S. commodities exchange Comex was even more pronounced, pushing the spread between the two exchanges to a record high, Commerzbank analysts say in a note. The strong U.S. market reaction suggests concerns about potential import tariffs are driving up the price, though there is little fresh news on this front, Commerzbank says. While U.S. companies will likely build up copper inventories in the short term, this is just pulling demand forward, and the price effect can be expected to reverse at a later stage, Commerzbank writes. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0617 ET - Palm oil prices fell in Asian trading amid profit-taking ahead of the weekend, Kenanga Futures says in a note. Malaysian exports have continued to fall since November due to high prices and its premium to rival soyoil, pushing "price-sensitive buyers to alternatives," analysts at AmInvestment Bank said. Markets may continue to trade sideways, they add. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery fell MYR37 to MY4,376 a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0517 ET - Gold futures fall, but remain near record highs on a weakening dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Futures are down 0.2% at $3,038.70 a troy ounce, but hold near its record high of $3,065.20 an ounce set on Thursday. The dollar is under downward pressure on weak economic data, providing momentum for gold prices, XS.com's Linh Tran says in a note. Concerns around the growing burden of U.S. federal debt have increased financial risks. Geopolitical tensions are also escalating, with the Israel-Hamas conflict intensifying and U.S.-China economic dispute driving investors toward gold as a safe investment channel, Tran writes. Market focus is also on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy--if the Fed adopts a more dovish stance toward cutting interest rates, gold prices could be propelled higher, she adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 21, 2025 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)

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