Odaily星球日报讯 QCP Capital 发文称，随着 BTC 和 ETH 分别重回 85,000 美元和 2,000 美元上方，加密市场周末出现温和反弹，主要受美股期货反弹带动。美联储主席鲍威尔上周在 FOMC 会议上的“缓和”讲话缓解了市场紧张情绪，加密恐惧与贪婪指数从上周的 32%回升至本周的 45%。 值得注意的是，BTC 现货 ETF 上周录得 8,775 枚 BTC（约 7.44 亿美元）净流入，结束连续几周的资金外流，显示流动性可能开始重新回流加密市场。目前永续合约未平仓量依旧低迷、资金费率趋于平稳，表明此次反弹可能由现货驱动，而非杠杆推动。 尽管 ETF 流入带来提振，但 QCP 仍对加密市场持续上涨持谨慎态度。4 月 2 日即将实施的新一轮关税政策可能再度施压风险资产。当前期权市场呈中性观望情绪，各期限隐含波动率持续走低、风险逆转回落至持平水准，相较于上周明显的看跌偏斜已有缓和。QCP 表示将关注本轮上涨是否重演上周一走势——周日上涨后 48 小时内迅速回调。
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