Anxiety about the U.S. economy is prompting traders to scour every economic report for nuggets of fresh information, at times diving into data they used to ignore.
Along with studying the usual readouts on jobs, manufacturing or inflation for clues to the path of interest-rate policy, many now say they are dissecting a broader range of reports for any signs that trade restrictions and other Trump administration policies are slowing growth.
That includes inspecting bar and restaurant spending, the number of jobs posted on private employment sites, automobile-loan application rates, credit-card spending and even sales at diamond jewelers. Mark Malek, Siebert chief investment officer, calls them "sleepy numbers" -- figures that fly under the radar during a bull market but which investors scrutinize when the road ahead looks particularly unclear.
"You don't want to overlook anything that's going to give you some sort of hint that something might be happening," Malek said.
While the trade war has sparked some of the year's biggest days for stocks, new economic data remain a persistent driver of market swings. A climb in unemployment and a cooler-than-expected inflation report prompted big intraday moves earlier this month. Strong home-building data sent Treasury yields higher early Tuesday, and stocks climbed Thursday morning after home sales beat Wall Street's expectations.
In one sign of how the scrutiny has intensified, investors welcomed an uptick in retail sales earlier this month, with S&P 500 futures gaining more than 1% in the hour following the report. The previous month's data, in contrast, provoked little evident market reaction, with futures holding steady despite disappointing numbers.
Investors don't have a lot else to go on, said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. At a time of heightened confusion, they will take any clarity they can get. For some, that has included the Federal Reserve's studies of regional economies known as the beige book reports.
"We never focus on the beige book. I've been in this industry 32 years, and I can barely tell you what the beige book is," he said. "Given the backdrop of uncertainty...every little number is put under a microscope."
Firms are also scouring niche surveys and company earnings. Bespoke Investment Group parsed the New York Fed's Credit Access Survey for signs of pessimism in auto-loan applications, and dived into restaurant demand for indications of Americans' willingness to eat out. Citi last week interpreted a strong month at diamond jewelry giant Signet as a sign that consumers remain willing to splurge when the time is right.
Others are scrutinizing niche labor-market data. Dissatisfied with the time delay of the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, Interactive Brokers senior economist José Torres has been combing through the number of job openings posted on Indeed.com, a digital job-listing platform.
Some investors are turning to "B and C tier data," said Bespoke strategist George Pearkes, because they don't want to wait for the major figures. "The hard data is lagged, because it's higher quality," he said. "So if you're trying to catch an inflection point, you would expect those alternative data sets to reflect what's going on faster."
Manufacturing and services data from the Institute for Supply Management, for example, emerge within weeks, and have triggered major index movements recently, noted Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. Tentarelli said he usually prefers to focus on high-profile data points such as the consumer-price index and jobs reports.
"A healthy market doesn't pay attention to the ISM reports or the beige book," he said. "The market right now is overacting to almost every piece of data that's coming out."
Investors became accustomed to steady growth in recent years, expecting a stable environment for businesses, said Que Nguyen, chief investment officer of equity strategies at Research Affiliates. Traders mostly took negative data in stride. But 2025 has upended that backdrop.
"We're seeing a complete reset," Nguyen said. "Businesses are worried. They're delaying hiring. They're delaying [capital expenditure]. The markets are, therefore, scrutinizing things a lot more carefully."
Not every datapoint receiving scrutiny moves markets. The S&P 500 gained more than 2% recently, even after a dismal report on consumer sentiment.
That is because while it is helpful to know consumer and business sentiment has soured, the question remains what those consumers and businesses will actually do, said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. And sentiment hasn't historically been a strong predictor of spending activity.
"But maybe this time will turn out a little different if this is a big shake-up of the world order," he said.
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