Nexstar Media Group's (NASDAQ:NXST) five-year earnings growth trails the strong shareholder returns

Simply Wall St.
23 Mar

When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. For example, the Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:NXST) share price has soared 183% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. It's also up 18% in about a month. We note that Nexstar Media Group reported its financial results recently; luckily, you can catch up on the latest revenue and profit numbers in our company report.

Since it's been a strong week for Nexstar Media Group shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Nexstar Media Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 36% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 23% over the same period. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 7.69.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NasdaqGS:NXST Earnings Per Share Growth March 23rd 2025

We know that Nexstar Media Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Nexstar Media Group the TSR over the last 5 years was 228%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Nexstar Media Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 12% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 27% per year, is even more impressive. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Nexstar Media Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Nexstar Media Group (1 is potentially serious) that you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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