Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, CAQ Holdings Limited (ASX:CAQ) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for CAQ Holdings
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2024 CAQ Holdings had AU$3.80m of debt, an increase on AU$3.43m, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of AU$88.0k, its net debt is less, at about AU$3.72m.
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that CAQ Holdings had liabilities of AU$4.45m due within 12 months and liabilities of AU$5.03m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of AU$88.0k as well as receivables valued at AU$132.0k due within 12 months. So its liabilities total AU$9.26m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the AU$5.02m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, CAQ Holdings would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is CAQ Holdings's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Over 12 months, CAQ Holdings made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to AU$1.7m, which is a fall of 34%. To be frank that doesn't bode well.
While CAQ Holdings's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. To be specific the EBIT loss came in at AU$436k. When we look at that alongside the significant liabilities, we're not particularly confident about the company. We'd want to see some strong near-term improvements before getting too interested in the stock. Not least because it burned through AU$481k in negative free cash flow over the last year. So suffice it to say we consider the stock to be risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with CAQ Holdings (including 4 which can't be ignored) .
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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