金吾财讯 | 国信证券发研指，名创优品(09896)2024全年实现营收169.94亿/yoy+22.8%，经调净利润27.21亿/yoy+15.4%，经调净利率为16.0%/yoy-1.0pct。单Q4实现收入47.12亿/yoy+22.7%，经调净利润7.93亿/yoy+20.0%，经调净利率为16.8%/yoy-0.4pct。Q4国内宏观环境影响对国内销售带来一定压力，同时公司加大直营门店开店，前期投入较高，但海外市场OPM持续提升，态势有望持续。该行指，公司作为全球头部渠道零售商，依托自身强大的渠道网络和供应链能力，持续与热门IP合作持续优化产品结构带动盈利水平上行，同时海外直营市场持续开店扩大品牌影响力，并有望后续释放经营杠杆带动利润率提升。同时公司已完成收购永辉超市项目交割，二季度预计实现并表，并计划通过“三提两降”方针助力永辉2025年实现大幅度减亏，利用其与名创品牌服务客群以及价格带维度的互补，逐步在零售赛道构建独特的多品牌矩阵。该行表示，考虑到整体经济环境以及IP联名收益的不确定性，同时公司加大直营门店开店力度导致利润率存在一定压力，该行下调公司2025-2026年并新增2027年归母净利润预测为30.51/36.78/45.06（2025/2026原值为33.30/39.58）亿元，对应PE为15/13/10x，维持“优于大市”评级。
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