金吾财讯 | 标普500指数近期呈现技术性反弹，但摩根大通分析师团队警告称，这波涨势或难以持续，因动能股抛售潮尚未完全释放，叠加政策不确定性持续施压市场。该行指出，长线动能因子正经历40年来最剧烈的逆转之一，过去三周内抹去了前两年的累计涨幅，抛售压力主要集中在大型科技股，导致标普500指数总市值蒸发5.8万亿美元，其中40%的跌幅由头部动能股贡献。摩根大通分析指出，过去两年支撑美股结构性牛市的三大叙事——长期高利率预期、美国例外主义及人工智能技术突破——正面临多重挑战。经济增速放缓担忧、特朗普政府关税政策引发的全球贸易摩擦升级，以及AI领域的技术扩散风险，均削弱了资金对科技股的偏好。数据显示，动能股资金正加速流向低波动性板块，公用事业、保险及金融服务类股估值已升至历史高位，形成典型的防御性轮动特征。尽管市场短期情绪有所回暖，但该行强调不宜高估资金向价值股的转移空间。分析师指出，当前美国商业周期尚未经历周期性调整，且美联储未释放快速降息信号，制约了价值股的估值修复空间。若市场进入高利率与经济放缓并存的结构性转变阶段，当前动能股抛售可能仅完成三分之一，建议投资者保持谨慎仓位应对潜在波动。
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