Moleculin Biotech Inc (MBRX) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Promising Clinical Trials and ...

GuruFocus.com
25 Mar
  • Cash Balance: Approximately $13 million as of the end of the year, including $9 million raised in February 2025.
  • Operating Expenses: Reduced by about $3 million in 2024 compared to 2023.
  • Market Cap: $16.2 million with 14 million shares outstanding.
  • Phase 2 Clinical Trial Results: 50% complete remission rate in second-line AML patients treated with Annamycin plus high-dose Cytarabine.
  • Overall Survival: 11 months for second-line therapy patients in the Phase 2 trial.
  • Progression-Free Survival: Median of 9 months in the Phase 2 trial.
  • Phase 3 MIRACLE Trial: Designed to compare Annamycin plus high-dose Cytarabine against placebo plus high-dose Cytarabine.
  • Interim Data Unblinding: Planned after 45 and between 75-90 subjects in the Phase 3 trial.
  • Shares Trading Volume: Trailing one-year trading volume of 1.4 million shares per day.
  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 1 Warning Sign with MBRX.

Release Date: March 24, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

  • Moleculin Biotech Inc (NASDAQ:MBRX) has initiated the MIRACLE Phase 3 pivotal trial for Annamycin, targeting relapsed and refractory AML patients, with 25 sites selected globally.
  • The company has regulatory and ethics approval in its first European country and expects more approvals in the second quarter.
  • Annamycin has shown promising Phase 2 data with a 50% complete remission rate in second-line AML patients, outperforming existing therapies.
  • The MIRACLE trial includes multiple unblindings of data, providing stakeholders with visibility into the trial's progress.
  • Moleculin Biotech Inc (NASDAQ:MBRX) has reduced operating expenses by $3 million in 2024 compared to 2023, demonstrating financial discipline.

Negative Points

  • The US is expected to be one of the last countries to begin enrolling in the MIRACLE trial due to longer approval processes.
  • The company faces a significant financial challenge, with the Phase 3 trial potentially costing upwards of $60 million to $70 million.
  • Moleculin Biotech Inc (NASDAQ:MBRX) has a limited cash runway, with funds expected to last only until the third quarter of 2025.
  • There is uncertainty regarding which Annamycin dosing regimen will be most effective, requiring further data analysis.
  • The company acknowledges the complexity of achieving early approval, as it requires a very statistically significant result in Part A of the trial.

Q & A Highlights

Q: What efficacy is required to pick one Annamycin dose at 45 patients rather than waiting until 90 if it doesn't happen at 45? A: Walter Klemp, CEO: If Annamycin performs as well in Part A as it did in the Phase 2 trial, and HiDAC performs as expected, we might hit the statistical significance required to accelerate approval. However, HiDAC might underperform due to being limited to one cycle. Paul Waymack, Senior Chief Medical Officer, added that it's a multivariable equation, and while early termination is possible, it's not highly likely.

Q: Towards the end of the trial, what was the thinking that went into cutting off about 10% of patients from Part D? A: Walter Klemp, CEO: The FDA suggested a different biostatistical scheme during protocol review, which allowed us to reduce the number of patients.

Q: What is the STS lung met efficacy bogey you need to hit to proceed to a pivotal trial? A: Walter Klemp, CEO: We've already hit that. The STS patients treated were more challenged than expected, yet we achieved OS numbers typical of first-line patients. This has attracted interest from sarcoma experts, and a pivotal trial is being considered.

Q: What are the overall costs of the trial? A: Jonathan Foster, CFO: The full patient load for the Phase 3 trial could cost $60-$70 million. Our cash burn for 2025 is $5 million per quarter, increasing to $7-$8 million in 2026 as we prepare for an NDA.

Q: What are your thoughts on moving Annamycin to frontline AML treatment? A: Paul Waymack, Senior Chief Medical Officer: Once we document efficacy and file our NDA, we plan to explore multiple areas, including first-line therapy. Annamycin's lack of cardiotoxicity and resistance issues makes it suitable for first-line therapy, especially for unfit patients.

Q: What was the rationale for choosing the 190 mg/m dose for the MIRACLE trial? A: Paul Waymack, Senior Chief Medical Officer: The 230 mg/m dose showed great results in the 106 study. The FDA's Project Optimus led us to include a lower 190 mg/m dose, which also showed efficacy. Both doses are expected to perform similarly.

Q: Regarding the 190 mg/m dose, do you need to be superior to the 17%-18% CR rate observed in other trials to apply for early approval? A: Paul Waymack, Senior Chief Medical Officer: If one dose is clearly superior, the comparison would be against placebo. For early approval after Part A, the P-value would need to be less than 0.01, considering the totality of data.

Q: Will you preserve the 190 mg/m dose in case of safety signals with the 230 mg/m dose? A: Walter Klemp, CEO: We have enough experience with Annamycin to be confident in its safety profile. However, if 230 mg/m becomes problematic, we could revert to 190 mg/m. By the end of Part A, we expect to have enough data to make an informed choice.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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