【PVC可以抄底了吗？】1. 供应端本周内广西华谊PVC装置临时停车，行业开工率小幅回落，下周有两套装置进入年度检修，后期4-5月将有较多PVC装置停车，预计行业供应阶段性延续减少，3月25日，唐山三友PVC装置降负荷开车，目前开工率大约在8成，今日电石法SG-5型暂停报价，SG-3型报5110元/吨，SG-8型报5060元/吨，厂家PVC产能40万吨。PVC供应压力缓解。2. 需求端PVC期现维持在低位运行，下游环节采购意愿回升，下游制品企业开工率继续提升，但硬制品表现始终不如软制品；出口端PVC海外需求较好，但后期或受印度反倾销调查影响；地产方面依旧弱势，房屋新开工累计同比数据继续下滑，中短期地产环节难有明显改善。3. 成本方面，电石、乙烯价格变化不大，对PVC成本端的影响有限。中辉期货分析师苏日嘎拉图认为，随着国内宏观预期向好接续，叠加银四躁动行情来临，PVC盘面有望延续低位反弹态势，不过基于长期基本面压制，反弹高度暂不宜过度乐观。
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