Norfolk Southern’s NSC efforts to reward its shareholders through dividends and buybacks are encouraging. However, high debt load and economic uncertainties are concerning.

Factors Aiding NSC

E-commerce growth is a tailwind for Norfolk Southern. E-commerce, which has gained in importance, leads to greater demand for intermodal services, the long-haul movement of shipping containers from ship to rail and truck. It is hardly surprising that the pace of growth of e-commerce demand has slowed from the levels witnessed at the peak of the pandemic, with the reopening of economies. However, it remains impressive, driven by the convenience associated with online shopping. E-commerce demand is supporting Norfolk’s shipment volumes.

Norfolk Southern utilizes the Precision Scheduled Railroading (“PSR”) operating plan to reduce costs and enhance services for optimal asset utilization. To ensure the effectiveness of its PSR plan, NSC recruited John Orr in March 2024 as COO. Orr has extensive PSR expertise. By utilizing this strategy, NSC has made improvements concerning network performance, safety and service.

Under NSC’s goals to restructure, the company aims for a 42% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2034. Locomotive fuel efficiency is expected to improve 13% by 2027. Norfolk Southern’s efforts to reward its shareholders through dividends and buybacks are impressive.

In 2023, the company returned $1.847 billion to its shareholders through a combination of dividends ($1.225 billion) and share buybacks ($622 million). In January 2023, the company's board announced a 9% increase in its quarterly dividend payout. This was the fourth dividend hike announced by the company in a year. Norfolk Southern's strong free cash flow generating ability supports its shareholder-friendly activities.

Key Risks for the NSC Stock

Macroeconomic concerns are leading to a tough freight environment. In view of the prevalent tariff-related uncertainties surrounding the economy and the rise in inflation over the past few months, recessionary fears have emerged. Geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation continue to hurt consumer sentiment. As things stand now, consumer spending and business investments remain low and production levels have decreased in response to reduced demand, affecting demand for goods transportation and resulting in a freight recession 

We are concerned about Norfolk Southern’s high debt levels, a direct result of its continued fixed asset buildup, although its size, scale and relationships do offer a cushion. For 2025, NSC expects property additions to be approximately $2.2 billion, higher than 2022 levels. At the end of 2024, NSC had long-term debt of $16.6 billion compared with $12.1 billion at 2020-end. As may be expected, the higher interest expenses are hurting profitability, particularly given the weak economic backdrop. The company’s times interest earned ratio of 4.8, although apparently comfortable, compares unfavorably with the industry’s ratio of 7.1.

NSC’s Unimpressive Price Performance 

Shares of NSC have declined 5% over the past six months, underperforming the S&P 500 ‘s 0.8% growth. The Zacks Transportation - Rail industry has declined 9.1% in the same timeframe.

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NSC’s Zacks Rank

NSC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the Transportation sector may consider SkyWest SKYW and Frontier Group ULCC.

SkyWest currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

SKYW has an expected earnings growth rate of 16% for the current year. The company has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 16.7%. Shares of SKYW have risen 12% over the past six months.

Frontier Group sports a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. ULCC has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 300% for the current year.

The company has an encouraging track record with respect to earnings surprise, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once. The average surprise is 1.1%. Shares of ULCC have gained 11% in the past six months.

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