North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Fall as Tariff Uncertainty Grips Markets

Dow Jones
26 Mar

OPENING CALL

Stock futures were down ahead of yet another trading session that's likely to be dominated by chatter about Trump's plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

Even though Trump was referring to the date as America's Liberation Day, investors may reach a different conclusion.

Corporate America is fretting over what it sees as whipsaw policy changes and complacency about the risks of recession.

Meanwhile, energy stocks are leading the market this year , which may say more about the market than it says about the industry.

Stocks to Watch

Boeing was down 0.5% after a federal judge ordered the airplane maker to go to trial in June in a criminal case related to two 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019.

GameStop's board updated the company's investment policy to add bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. Shares rose 12%.

SurgePays forecast more than $200 million in revenue over the next year following a partnership with AT&T. Shares rose 90%.

Theratechnologies received FDA approval for Egrifta WR, its treatment for excess abdominal fat in adults with HIV. Shares climbed 35%.

Worthington Enterprises reported earnings topped analysts' estimates. Shares rose 2.6%.

Watch For:

Durable Goods for February, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; earnings from Jefferies, Dollar Tree, Chewy, Cintas and Petco.

Today's Headlines/Must Reads:

- The U.S. Missile Launcher That Is Enraging China

- Ex-Tesla CFO Leads Employee-Rewards Startup's Funding Round in First Major Venture Since Exit

- China's Stimulus Spurs Cautious Growth Upgrades at Global Banks as Trade Risks Loom

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar rose slightly but traded within a relatively tight range against a basket of currencies amid uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, Pepperstone said.

Month-end and quarter-end flows are also "continuing to muddy the waters quite significantly," it added.

Implied volatility of the euro versus the dollar was falling after high volatility in the first half of March, ING said.

One-month implied volatility in the exchange rate is 7.125%, having risen above 9% earlier in the month, LSEG data show.

Stability in U.S. asset markets has helped bring down implied volatility, alongside "a rethink about how quickly new [German] fiscal stimulus or defence spending stands to lift eurozone growth."

Notably, ECB rate-cut expectations weren't altered significantly during the recent volatility.

Sterling fell after the latest U.K. inflation data came in lower than expected.

ING said Sterling could fall further if U.K. government bonds sell off after the U.K. budget at 08:30 ET.

"Should spending cuts be far too back-loaded to be credible, or if the government sails too close to the wind with its gilt issuance plans, we could see a repeat of January's gilt and sterling selloff," Turner said.

ING also considers that the market is underpricing interest-rate cuts from the BOE this year.

The prospect of tighter fiscal and looser monetary policy would be sterling negative.

Bonds:

Treasury yields had room to move a bit higher in the near term.

TD Securities expected the Treasury curve to steepen later this year, driven by a faster fall of short-dated Treasury yields than long-dated ones.

"We expect rates to move lower during the year, accelerating in the second half as we look for cuts to resume."

It would reload on longs if 10-year yields move back to the 4.5%-4.6% area, it said.

ING said a trading range of 4.25%-4.35% for 10-year Treasury yields is expected to prevail this week, and at least into April 2.

Energy:

Oil prices edged higher, supported by market concerns over global supplies after stepped up efforts to limit Iranian and Venezuelan crude sales.

Meanwhile, traders were keeping a close eye on U.S.-Russia negotiations, with Moscow saying it would comply with a Black Sea cease-fire upon the lifting of some banking sanctions.

However, the impact of any agreement on the physical oil market is expected to be relatively minor.

Capital Economics said any upward pressure on oil prices due to actions against Iran and Venezuela was expected to fade quickly, with Brent crude still projected to average $70 a barrel this year.

Metals:

Gold futures rose and ING said over the first quarter of 2025, gold-backed ETFs recorded 155 metric tons of net inflows so far, bringing holdings to their highest total since September 2023.

There was room for more additions given the present total is still short of the peak holdings in 2020, ING added.

Gold chart

As long as the futures contract stays above $2,900, the broader uptrend remains intact, RHB Retail Research said based on the daily chart .

   
 
 
   
 
 

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

 
 

CoreWeave IPO Is a Huge Bet That AI Demand Sticks

CoreWeave has shown a definite knack for being in the right place at the right time. Its initial public offering could test the limits of that ability.

The provider of specialized cloud-computing services for artificial intelligence is expected to price its IPO late Thursday and debut for trading on the Nasdaq on Friday morning. The offering could raise CoreWeave as much as $3 billion at the high end of the proposed price range. It would also mark the latest stage of a very rapid ascendance for a company that started life as a cryptocurrency miner and then-when the bottom fell out of that market-pivoted its fleet of Nvidia chips toward AI computing.

   
 
 

Dollar Tree to Sell Family Dollar Business for $1 Billion

Dollar Tree is nearing a sale of its Family Dollar business to a consortium of private-equity investors for roughly $1 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

   
 
 

Nintendo Shares Rise on Hopes for Switch 2 Console

Nintendo's shares rose sharply amid hopes for its upcoming Switch 2 console, the new version of its widely successful Switch console that was launched in 2017.

Various media reports suggest a new console will be unveiled imminently, with one outlet reporting that a presentation focused on the Switch 2 console is expected next week, where Nintendo is likely to reveal a pre-order date of April 2. Another media report suggests that the launch is expected in June.

   
 
 

BOJ Governor Suggests Food Inflation Could Lead to Rate Hike

TOKYO-The Bank of Japan may consider monetary tightening if a surge in food prices causes broader and stronger inflation, the central bank governor said Wednesday, adding fuel to expectations for a near-term rate hike.

"We may have to consider responding by raising interest rates if the rise in some food prices gradually spreads to related prices such as processed food products and restaurants, which would make it easier to raise prices for other goods and services and lead to the possibility for more widespread inflation," BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda told a parliamentary committee.

   
 
 

Trump Administration Denies Signal Chat Shared Classified Details With Journalist

WASHINGTON-President Trump and two of his top intelligence officials denied on Tuesday that classified materials about military strikes in Yemen were shared by officials on a group chat on a nongovernment service, while Democrats denounced the security breach as reckless and dangerous.

Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, and John Ratcliffe, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, told Congress Tuesday that the chat among senior officials over a pending military strike against Houthi militants earlier this month didn't include classified information.

   
 
 

Judge Orders ICE to Stop Trying to Arrest 21-Year-Old Columbia Student

A federal judge ordered immigration authorities to stop their efforts to detain a Columbia University junior who participated in pro-Palestinian protests until further notice from the court.

Judge Naomi Reice Buchwald on Tuesday issued a temporary restraining order, a day after Yunseo Chung sued the Trump administration to prevent her deportation. The judge, appointed by President Bill Clinton, scheduled a hearing for May 20.

   
 
 

Trump's Tariff War Forces Allies to Choose Resistance or Surrender

President Trump's trade war is forcing America's closest allies to choose between fighting back, or acquiescing. The trouble is, nobody has figured out which is the best way to get Trump to do what they want.

The European Union and Canada have led the charge against Trump's tariffs, threatening their own duties on tens of billions of dollars of American goods after the U.S. leveled blanket tariffs on steel and aluminum, and on imports in North America. Officials in both regions have calculated there is value in showing strength.

   
 
 

Write to nina.kienle@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

Allied Gold Corp 4Q

BRP Inc. 4Q

HealWELL AI 4Q

MAG Silver 1Q

Marimaca Copper 4Q

Economic Indicators $(ET)$:

1330 Bank of Canada summary of monetary policy deliberations

Stocks to Watch:

Dundee Corp. 4Q Loss C$8.2M

Goeasy Sells $400M of 7.375% Senior Unsecured Notes Due 2030

Hydro One Current Chair Timothy Hodgson Taking Unpaid Leave of Absence to Run in Federal Election; Names Susan Wolburgh Jenah as Interim Chair

Kelso Technologies 2024 Rev $10.7M; Loss $4.6M; Expects Flat to Slightly Positive Sales Growth for 2025; Sees 2025 Sales Growth of Up to 5%; Maintaining Cost Discipline a Key Focus for 2025; Company Emerging From Challenging Financial Landscape; New Management Team Has Focused on Improving Operational Efficiency, Reducing Overhead Costs; Expects the Efforts to Have a Positive Impact on 2025 Profitability

Kolibri Global Energy 4Q EPS 16c; 4Q Rev $17.4M

Optiva 4Q Loss $4.7M; Rev $12M; Loss/Shr 75c

Petrus Resources 4Q Loss/Shr C$0.01

Theratechnologies Received FDA Approval for Egrifta WR to Treat Excess Visceral Abdominal Fat in Adults With HIV and Lipodystrophy

   
 
 

Expected Major Events for Wednesday

00:01/UK: Feb Zoopla House Price Index

05:00/JPN: Feb Supermarket sales

05:00/JPN: Jan Indexes of Business Conditions - Revision

07:00/UK: Feb CPI

07:45/FRA: Mar Consumer confidence survey

09:30/UK: Jan UK House Price Index

11:00/US: 03/21 MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

12:30/US: Feb Advance Report on Durable Goods

12:30/US: 4Q U.S. International Investment Position

14:30/US: 03/21 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

   
 
 

Expected Earnings for Wednesday

3D Systems Corp $(DDD)$ is expected to report $-0.18 for 4Q.

American Realty Investors Inc $(ARL)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Applied Therapeutics Inc $(APLT)$ is expected to report $-0.21 for 4Q.

Artesian Resources Corp - A Share (ARTNA,ARTNB) is expected to report $0.36 for 4Q.

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust $(BPT)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

BRP Inc (DOO.T,DOOO) is expected to report $0.73 for 4Q.

CASI Pharmaceuticals Inc $(CASI)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Canlan Ice Sports Corp (ICE.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Chewy Inc $(CHWY)$ is expected to report $0.03 for 4Q.

Cintas Corp $(CTAS)$ is expected to report $1.06 for 3Q.

Climb Bio Inc $(CLYM)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Dollar Tree Inc $(DLTR)$ is expected to report $2.18 for 4Q.

Gold Resource Corp $(GORO)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Hennessy Advisors Inc (HNNA) is expected to report for 1Q.

Interpace Biosciences Inc (IDXG) is expected to report for 4Q.

Larimar Therapeutics Inc $(LRMR)$ is expected to report $-0.31 for 4Q.

MicroVision Inc $(MVIS)$ is expected to report $-0.13 for 4Q.

Paychex Inc $(PAYX)$ is expected to report $1.48 for 3Q.

Petco Health & Wellness Co Inc $(WOOF)$ is expected to report $-0.02 for 4Q.

Power Solutions International Inc $(PSIX)$ is expected to report $0.80 for 4Q.

Precision Biosciences Inc (DTIL) is expected to report for 4Q.

Reed's Inc (REED) is expected to report $-0.07 for 4Q.

Rex American Resources Corp $(REX)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Savara Inc (SVRA) is expected to report $-0.11 for 4Q.

Shattuck Labs Inc $(STTK)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Sierra Metals Inc (SMT.T,SMTS) is expected to report for 4Q.

Spruce Power Holding Corp $(SPRU)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Syros Pharmaceuticals Inc (SYRS) is expected to report $-0.65 for 4Q.

Talphera Inc $(TLPH)$ is expected to report $-0.17 for 4Q.

Target Hospitality Corp $(TH)$ is expected to report $0.07 for 4Q.

Tectonic Therapeutic Inc $(TECX)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

TeraGo Inc (TGO.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Terns Pharmaceuticals Inc $(TERN.UK)$ is expected to report $-0.32 for 4Q.

Titan America SA (TTAM) is expected to report for 4Q.

Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc $(TCI)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Ur-Energy Inc (URE.T,URG) is expected to report for 4Q.

Verastem Inc (VSTM) is expected to report for 4Q.

Westwater Resources Inc (WWR) is expected to report for 4Q.

Yunhong Green CTI Ltd $(YHGJ)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

vTv Therapeutics Inc - Class A $(VTVT)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

   
 
 

ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS

Akoya Biosciences Cut to Equal-Weight From Overweight by Stephens & Co.

Azek Cut to Neutral From Buy by Citigroup

Brown & Brown Cut to Equal-Weight From Overweight by Morgan Stanley

Carvana Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Morgan Stanley

Cloudflare Raised to Buy From Underperform by B of A Securities

CNS Pharmaceuticals Cut to Hold From Buy by Maxim Group

CrowdStrike Holdings Raised to Buy From Neutral by BTIG

D&B Cut to Hold From Buy by Jefferies

EOG Resources Cut to Neutral From Outperform by Mizuho

HealthEquity Raised to Strong Buy From Outperform by Raymond James

High Expectations Likely to Hurt Chewy Shares, Providing Potential Buying Opportunity -- Analysis

Moleculin Biotech Raised to Buy From Hold by Maxim Group

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 26, 2025 06:02 ET (10:02 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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