金吾财讯 | 海底捞(06862)早盘股价向好，截至发稿，涨2.5%，报18.06港元，成交额5791.78万港元。消息面，中金研报指出，2H24公司在翻台有所下滑的情况下仍实现利润增长，体现了精细化管理能力和业绩韧性。展望25年，该行预计随部分门店折摊到期，25年折摊费用仍有下降空间，此外公司希望在产品高性价比前提下通过优化供应链维持合理毛利率水平，并在保障顾客满意度前提下通过多管店、灵活用工等优化人效(24年底已有121位多管店店长、且A/B类评级的多管门店占比逐步提升)，该行预计25年利润率水平有望维持。考虑毛利率优化和折摊费用下降，该行上调25/26年归母净利润4%/4%至49.8亿元和54.6亿元，维持跑赢行业评级，考虑行业估值中枢上行，上调目标价15%至19.5港元，对应25/26年P/E 20.6倍/18.5倍。该行称，海底捞2024年业绩略超该行预期，主因毛利率优化及转让餐厅给加盟商等收益好于预期。
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