金吾财讯 | 交银国际发研指，先声药业(02096)2024年收入和经调整净利润分别同比增长0.4%/42%至66.4亿/10.2亿元（人民币，下同），符合此前业绩预告，同时对应2H24增长9%/48%，相比1H24有明显复苏。创新药收入49亿元，对总收入贡献提升2.3个百分点至74.3%。虽然先必新受医保谈判降价和整体控费趋势影响，销售有所下滑，但艾得辛销售表现较出色。随着CSO收入占比下降，高毛利创新药收入占比提升，毛利率和经调整净利率显著提升5个百分点左右。全年分红+回购10.9亿元，按当前股价对应6%以上的现金回报率。公司预计有望上市的达利雷生等6款产品将合计产生60-80亿元销售峰值。该行指出，2H24业绩增速如期迎来复苏，该行预计这一趋势将延续至2025-27年，公司将迎来6款创新药上市，同时创新技术平台有望持续产出BD出海机会。看好业绩复苏和BD催化估值修复。维持公司“买入”评级。该行上调2025-26年经调整净利润预测6-8%，主要反映更乐观的利润率改善空间，上调目标价至11.2港元，对应22倍2025E市盈率和1.1倍2025EPEG（基于2024-27E经调整净利润CAGR），看好业绩持续复苏驱动下的估值修复，继续将公司选为行业重点推荐标的之一。
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