金吾财讯 | 华安证券发研指，雅迪控股(01585)24H2收入138.2亿元（同比-22.0%），归母净利润2.4亿元（同比-83.6%）。24年收入282.4亿元（同比-18.8%），归母净利润12.7亿元（同比-51.8%）。公司公告每股派发红利0.45港元，对应分红率102%（上年51%/总额持平）。该行指出，拆分预计24H2销量664万台(-20%)，ASP为2082元(同比50元/环比-176元)，单车净利34元（同比-139元/环比-126元）。主因3C换标渠道去库导致量价均有下滑，实际动销好于出货，且Q4已逐月修复边际向好。该行续指，25年两轮板块需求转好与马太效应有望带来全年强β，关注后续旺季以旧换新和H2新国标试销等重要刺激信号。看好25年雅迪积极调整下的改革弹性，开年出货和推新节奏已逐步步入正轨，低基数低库存+渠道运营及研发投放效率提高之下，25年盈利弹性可期。该行预计25-27年营收为364.4/420.2/468.9亿元，同比增长+29%/+15%/+12%；归母为26.1/32.0/36.5亿元，同比增长+105%/+23%/+14%，对应PE为18/15/13X，维持买入。
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