Investors in CMOC Group Limited (HKG:3993) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.0% to close at HK$6.72 following the release of its full-year results. Revenues were CN¥213b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of CN¥0.63 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 11%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, CMOC Group's 24 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be CN¥212.1b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 6.0% to CN¥0.67. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥213.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.61 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for CMOC Group

The consensus price target was unchanged at HK$8.24, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on CMOC Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$11.21 and the most bearish at HK$6.90 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.4% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 15% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.6% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - CMOC Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around CMOC Group's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that CMOC Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CMOC Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for CMOC Group you should know about.

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