金吾财讯 | 中泰国际表示，港股业绩期已进入尾声，该行注意到恒生指数及MSCI中国指数今明两年的盈利增长预测被小幅下修，其中信息科技、医疗保健、材料及金融板块的盈利预测获上修，必选消费、可选消费、地产及工业板块持平，而电讯、公用事业、综合企业及能源板块的盈利预测则有明显下修。中国10年期国债收益率过去10个交易日内下跌10个基点至1.8%，中美利差扩大增加了人民币的下行压力。如果中国10年期国债收益率重回下行态势，可能预示经济基本面的复苏仍然不太稳固。考虑到4月后关税等外部扰动带来的潜在压力或明显上升，央行短期仍更可能采取结构性的货币工具而非总量工具应对。另外，美元指数近期回稳也为港股带来流动性压力。该行认为港股短期进入横盘震荡阶段，短期破顶的机会不大，风险偏好转弱的背景下不利进攻。若恒生指数回调至22,500点左右，届时可优先吸纳消费互联网及AI上游基础设施相关股份。
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